The Impact of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Agreement on the South African Economy

This paper analyses the effects of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Agreement (TFTA) on the South African economy using a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Simulation results show that South Africa’s economy gains from the implementation of the trade agreement with GDP rising by more than 1 per cent relative to the baseline. This win in overall economic activity occurs on the back of a terms of trade increase and a surge in regional trade, which allows for higher levels of both exports and imports. The boost to exports stimulates local industries, whilst relatively cheaper imports lead to welfare gains for local consumers. Increased trade and industry activity causes higher demand for endowments, including skilled and unskilled labour, capital and land, pushing up wages and capital rentals.