ERSA–SARB Growth Conference

Finding a Path to Growth & Employment in South Africa

South Africa’s growth and employment crisis is substantially a microeconomic crisis. While the macro settings are improving, growth will not materialise at the rates the country needs unless the micro-level environment allows firms and workers to enter, compete, innovate, hire, export, and grow.

The inaugural ERSA–SARB Growth Conference brought together over 30 leading economists, policymakers, and practitioners to examine the microeconomic foundations of growth — the firm-level dynamics, the regulatory environment, the cost structures, and the institutional arrangements that shape South Africa’s economic prospects. The conference deliberately set aside the macro topics that dominate public discourse to focus on the areas where untapped growth and employment potential is greatest.

The conference formed part of ERSA’s ongoing effort to connect academic research with economic policymaking and to foster dialogue between researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders.

 

The conference took place on 5–6 March 2026 at Hazendal Hotel, Stellenbosch, bringing together over 30 presenters and panellists from government, business, academia, and international organisations — including the OECD, the Presidency, the DTIC, DALRRD, National Treasury, the Competition Commission, and leading universities and research institutions.

Across ten sessions over two days, the programme combined sector-specific sessions on agriculture, manufacturing, and structural transformation with sessions on economy-wide issues including trade, competition, housing, investment, and empowerment, anchored by an OECD keynote on structural policy and a closing panel discussion.

What emerged was a remarkably convergent diagnosis. Regardless of the lens applied, the discussions kept arriving at the same set of constraints — the cost of non-traded inputs, barriers to firm entry and scaling, a missing middle in the firm size distribution, the failure of technology to diffuse, and the overloading of individual policy instruments with too many objectives. The full narrative is set out in the synthesis report.

The programme featured the following sessions:

Programme Details

Day 1

Agriculture, Employment and Growth
Presented by: Wandile Sihlobo (Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa)
Panellists: Johann Kirsten (Bureau for Economic Research), Mooketsa Ramasodi (Director General at the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forrestry) and Sifiso Ntombela (Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa)

A Vision for Affordable Housing
Presented by: Ivan Turok (University of the Free State) and Justin Visagie (Southern Centre for Inequality Studies)
Panellists: Paul Court (City of Cape Town), Ann Bernstein (Centre for Development and Enterprise) and Geci Karuri-Sebina (Wits School of Governance)

KEYNOTE: OECD Foundations for Growth and Competitiveness and Application to South Africa
Presented by: Dan Andrews (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

Frontiers of Structural Transformation Research and Its Relevance to South Africa
Presented by: Emmanuel Mensah (University of Groningen) and Calumn Hamilton (University of Groningen Growth and Development Centre)
Panellists: Zukiswa Kimani (Department of Trade, Industry and Competition), Elvis Avenyo (University of Johannesburg) and Isaac Kurusha (National Treasury)

Reigniting South African Investment
Presented by: Roy Havemann (Bureau for Economic Research)
Panellists: Mamokete Lijane (Standard Bank Group) and Saul Musker (the Presidency)

Day 2

International Trade and Growth
Presented by: Lawrence Edwards (University of Cape Town)
Panellists: Marianne Matthee (Gordon Institute of Business Science) and Xolelwa Mlumbi (Department of Trade, Industry and Competition)

Reforming South African Competition Policy
Presented by: Willem Boshoff (Stellenbosch University)
Panellists: Thando Vilakazi (Competition Tribunal), Nicola Theron (FTI Consulting) and James Hodge (Competition Commission)

Firm Productivity, Labour Mobility, and Participation in South Africa
Presented by: Carol Newman (Trinity College Dublin)

Black Economic Empowerment and Performance in South Africa
Presented by: Stephen Gelb (Overseas Development Institute)
Panellists: Natasha Marrian (Business Day) and Vuyo Jack (Empowerdex)

Closing Panel
Chair: Christopher Loewald (South African Reserve Bank)
Panellists: Khulekani Mathe (Business Unity South Africa), Dan Andrews (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and Lisette IJssel de Schepper (Bureau for Economic Research)

Ann Bernstein - Economic Research Southern Africa
Ann Bernstein
Ann Bernstein is the founder and executive director of the Centre for Development and Enterprise. Since its establishment in 1995, CDE has become a powerful national resource for research-based policy direction and big ideas on topi...
Calumn Hamilton - Economic Research Southern Africa
Calumn Hamilton
Calumn Hamilton is a postdoctoral researcher at the Universities of Groningen and Wageningen, and an affiliate of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre and the STEG research programme. His research focuses on empirical develop...
Carol Newman - Economic Research Southern Africa
Carol Newman
Carol Newman is Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin. An internationally recognised expert in development economics, her research explores the microeconomic foundations of development, focusi...
chris_loewald
Christopher Loewald
Christopher Loewald is the Head of Economic Research at the South African Reserve Bank, responsible for research, forecasting, global economic analysis, and the writing of the Monetary Policy Review.  He is a member of the SARB’s Mo...
Dan Andrews - Economic Research Southern Africa
Dan Andrews
At the OECD, Dan leads teams to analyze the implementation of structural policies and their implications for economic growth. Prior to that, he was a founding member of the e61 Institute – a big data data-driven thinktank in Austral...
Elizabeth van Renen - Economic Research Southern Africa
Elizabeth van Renen
Elizabeth has worked in the field of trade policy since 1996, when she joined the Directorate: International Trade in the then National Department of Agriculture. In 2009, she was appointed Director: SADC in the Department of Trade ...
Elvis Avenyo - Economic Research Southern Africa
Elvis K. Avenyo
Elvis K. Avenyo is a Senior Researcher at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED) at the University of Johannesburg, South Africa. He obtained a Ph.D. in Economics of Innovation, Policy Studies of Tec...
Emmanuel Mensah - Economic Research Southern Africa
Emmanuel Mensah
Emmanuel is an assistant professor at Utrecht University’s School of Economics. His research focuses on Macro-development, specializing in the economics and measurement of structural change. He obtained his Ph.D. from Maastricht Uni...
Geci Karuri-Sebina - Economic Research Southern Africa
Geci Karuri-Sebina
Geci Karuri-Sebina is an Associate Professor at Wits University’s Southern Centre for Inequality Studies, and coordinator of the Africa Civic Tech Innovation Network. She also serves as the ICESCO Chair on Innovation and Futures in ...
Isaac Kurasha - Economic Research Southern Africa
Isaac Kurasha
Isaac Kurasha is the Director of the Secondary Sectors within the Microeconomic Policy unit of the Economic Policy and International Cooperation Division in the National Treasury covering industrial and trade policy issues.
Ivan Turok - Economic Research Southern Africa
Ivan Turok
Prof Ivan Turok is a Research Fellow at Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) and holds the NRF Research Chair in City-Region Economies in the Department of Economics and Finance and the Centre for Development Support at the Univ...
James Hodge - Economic Research Southern Africa
James Hodge
James Hodge is the Chief Economist and an Acting Deputy Commissioner at the South African Competition Commission. James leads the Economic Research Bureau (ERB), which conducts cutting-edge economic research, develops guidelines and...
Johann Kirsten - Economic Research Southern Africa
Johann Kirsten
Johann Kirsten is Professor and Director of the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at the University of Stellenbosch. Before this appointment, he was Professor of Agricultural Economics and head of the Department of Agricultural Eco...
Justin Visagie - Economic Research Southern Africa
Justin Visagie
Justin Visagie is an Associate Professor at the Southern Centre for Inequality Studies (SCIS) at the University of the Witwatersrand. His research focuses on urban and regional economies, industrial policy, and spatial inequality, w...
Khulekani Mathe - Economic Research Southern Africa
Khulekani Mathe
Khulekane Mathe is the Chief Executive Officer of Business Unity South Africa (BUSA). Before joining BUSA, he was the head of financial inclusion at the Banking Association South Africa (BASA). He is also the current chair of the SA...
Lawrence Edwards - Economic Research Southern Africa
Lawrence Edwards
Lawrence Edwards is the Director and Professor of Economics at the research unit Policy Research in International Services and Manufacturing (PRISM) at the University of Cape Town. He is a Research Associate/Fellow at the South Afri...
Lisette IJssel de Schepper - Economic Research Southern Africa
Lisette IJssel de Schepper
Lisette IJssel de Schepper is Chief Economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at Stellenbosch University, where she leads the business and consumer survey suite and shapes the institute’s economic forecasts and narrative, ...
Mamokete Lijane - Economic Research Southern Africa
Mamokete Lijane
Mamokete Lijane is currently the Chair at ERSA and a Strategist in Global Markets at Standard Bank CIB, with 22 years’ experience as an analyst in financial markets. Prior to Standard Bank, she worked at Absa CIB and Aluwani Capital...
Marianne Matthee - Economic Research Southern Africa
Marianne Matthee
Prof. Marianne Matthee is a Professor of Economics at the Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS), University of Pretoria, with over 20 years of experience in economic development, international trade policy, and gender dynamics...
Natasha Marrian - Economic Research Southern Africa
Natasha Marrian
Natasha Marrian is a political editor and former journalist with a career spanning over two decades, with the majority of her career spent in senior roles at the Business Day and Financial Mail. She has worked across the media spect...
Nicola Theron - Economic Research Southern Africa
Nicola Theron
Nicola Theron is a Managing director at Econex, an economics consultancy, as well as an extraordinary professor at the University of Stellenbosch where she teaches Industrial Organisation at the graduate level. Nicola specializes in...
Paul Court - Economic Research Southern Africa
Paul Court
Paul Court is the City of Cape Town’s Chief Economist and the Manager of its’ Economic Analysis Branch. He holds a Masters’ degree in Economics and has 17 years’ experience in the fields of public and development economics. For the ...
Roy Havemann - Economic Research Southern Africa
Roy Havemann
Dr. Roy Havemann obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from Stellenbosch University. Roy Havemann is currently part of the Fiscal and Economic Services team for the Western Cape Government.
Saul Musker - Economic Research Southern Africa
Saul Musker
Saul Musker is Head of Strategy and Delivery Support in the Private Office of the President of South Africa, working on economic reform, climate finance and strategic policy initiatives. He studied at the University of the Witwaters...
Stephen Gelb - Economic Research Southern Africa
Stephen Gelb
Stephen Gelb is an independent development economist currently based in London. He worked in South Africa for thirty years, researching macroeconomics and growth, foreign investment, and political economy and inequality, and advisin...
Thando Vilakazi - Economic Research Southern Africa
Thando Vilakazi
Prof Thando Vilakazi is Associate Professor of Economics and Acting Director in the School of Economics at the University of Johannesburg (UJ), and former Executive Director of the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Dev...
Tinashe Kapuya - Economic Research Southern Africa
Tinashe Kapuya
Tinashe is currently Research Director and Lead of the Modelling Services Center based in Lusaka, Zambia. He leads work on Agricultural Value Chains across sub-Saharan Africa (i.e., Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Ghana, Malawi etc.), with...
Vuyo Jack - Economic Research Southern Africa
Vuyo Jack
Vuyo Jack founded Empowerdex with Chia-Chao Wu in June 2001. He qualified as a Chartered Accountant at the end of 2000, after completing his articles with PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). In March 2003 he was appointed to the BEE Task ...
Wandile Sihlobo - Economic Research Southern Africa
Wandile Sihlobo
Wandile Sihlobo is South Africa’s Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land and Chief Economist of Agbiz. He is the author of three books: The Uncomfortable Truth About South Africa’s Agriculture (2025), A Country of Two Agricultur...
Willem Boshoff - Economic Research Southern Africa
Willem H. Boshoff
Willem Boshoff has over 16 years of experience in the economic analysis of complex competition cases. Before starting his own practice, he was director at Econex (Pty) Ltd. Willem is the co-director of the Centre for Competition Law...
Zukiswa Kimani - Economic Research Southern Africa
Zukiswa Kimani
Ms Zukiswa Kimani is the Chief Director in Sectors Branch of the South African Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (the DTIC). She holds a Master’s Degree in Development Economics from the Australian National University (A...

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The conference produced two types of written output: a synthesis report drawing together the findings across all ten sessions, and individual session reports for each of the nine substantive sessions.

The synthesis report constructs a coherent narrative from the conference proceedings, organised around the diagnosis that emerged, the cross-cutting constraints that surfaced in every session, and an actionable agenda of implementable ideas arranged by time horizon. It is intended for readers who want to understand what the conference found as a whole without reading each session individually.

The session reports provide a detailed account of each session’s anchor presentation, panel discussion, and audience exchanges. By convention, individuals are identified only on the title page of each report; arguments and ideas in the body text are not attributed to named speakers. The reports are thematic syntheses, not transcripts — readers seeking the full nuance of the exchanges are encouraged to watch the session recordings.

ERSA
Synthesis Report: Finding a Path to Growth and Employment
ERSA
Session 1 Report: Redefining the Path: An Assessment of South Africa's Growth Model
ERSA
Session 2 Report: A Vision for Affordable Urban Housing
ERSA
Session 3 Report: Keynote Address - Reigniting Growth Prospects: The Role of Structural Policy
ERSA
Session 4 Report: Frontiers of Structural Transformation
ERSA
Session 5 Report: Reigniting South African Investment
ERSA
Session 6 Report: International Trade and Growth
ERSA
Session 7 Report: Reforming South African Competition Policy
ERSA
Session 8 Report: Unlocking Manufacturing Growth in South Africa
ERSA
Session 9 Report: Black Economic Empowerment and Performance in South Africa

Each conference session was informed by a policy paper commissioned by ERSA, providing the evidence base and analytical framework on which the presentations were built. These papers, with full references, offer a deeper treatment of the topics than the session reports and are intended as standalone contributions to the policy debate.

In addition to the conference papers, this section includes a broader series of ERSA policy papers on South African economic growth. These papers cover topics that extend beyond the conference programme and are part of ERSA’s wider research agenda on the drivers of growth and employment. The collection will continue to grow as new papers are completed.

Robert Botha
Understanding South Africa’s mining slowdown
Willem H. Boshoff
Enhancing merger control to support economic growth in South Africa
Roy Havemann
Reigniting Investment in South Africa
Calumn HamiltonEmmanuel Mensah
The Structural Change Emergency in South Africa
Roula Inglesi-LotzTania NqosaVutomi NkunaWiZelle Kritzinger
Power, People, and Productivity: Skills Development for South Africa’s Just Energy Transition
Secret Link