Post-pandemic, South Africa’s economy finds itself in a constrained fiscal environment...
Featured Policy Papers
- This paper evaluates the main challenges facing South African monetary policy. We focus on three main issues: the external environment, the growth potential of the economy and its fiscal balance. The external environment will remain uncertain and volatile and South Africa monetary policy should...Apr 2021
Latest Working Papers
- This study reports on measuring and testing of a Composite Financial Cycle Index (CFCI) as a modified version of a South African Financial Cycle (FC). This is achieved through the adoption of thirteen monthly financial time series indicators observed over the period 2000M1 to 2018M12. In this...Oct 2021
- Understanding the causes and consequences of conflicts continues to be an important contribution to the economic development literature, particularly the mechanisms that can reduce civilian deaths. We contribute to understanding attacks on civilians and the spillover effects by analysing the impact...Aug 2021
- We developed a network model to capture the dynamic interactions among foreign exchange returns and realised risk measures among 20 developed and emerging market currencies, including the rand (ZAR). We demonstrate how this framework can be used to assess the sensitivity of a given currency to...Aug 2021
- According to recent macroeconomic evidence (Bosch and Koch 2020b; Farrell and Kemp 2020), the global ﬁnancial crisis is still impacting the South African ﬁnancial landscape more than 10 years later. In an eﬀort to better understand the eﬀect of the ﬁnancial crisis, we examine household debt...Jul 2021
- I construct and partially characterize the solution of a life-cycle model of fertility choice and human capital accumulation. Because children take time to raise, women face a trade-off between between lifetime earnings and childbearing. The model implies that (i) earnings must drop discontinuously...Jul 2021
Featured Policy Bulletin
The Covid crisis saw significant declines in market liquidity and calls for central banks to step in. Most research into foreign exchange (FX) liquidity does not consider a large cross-section of emerging market currency pairs...
South Africa has been experiencing electricity shortages since 2008. Load shedding is taking place even at the moment, despite a large contraction in economic activity due to the Covid-19 crisis. It is time to reform the electricity market and breakdown Eskom’s vertically integrated monopoly. An...
Economic growth requires delivering a credible fiscal consolidation plan that shifts spending towards investment in infrastructure, human capital accumulation and a environmentally sustainable economy. Fiscal policy has to move first, reducing risk...
After the COVID-19 crisis is over, South Africa will face a fiscal mountain that looks insurmountable. Many of the problems experienced in the public finances originated outside of the fiscus and have to be addressed at source, neither fiscal discretion, nor fiscal rules or any...
The principle of transparency is the only way that policy makers can understand the limitations of a model and use its outputs effectively to inform policy. In absence of this transparency, there is no accountability and claims cannot be tested. The first ERSA policy bulletin discusses how to...
Featured Policy Briefs
- It is less onerous to achieve policy objectives when they are clear, credibly implemented and appropriately communicated, all of which reduces uncertaintyNov 2019
- The study explores remuneration patterns in South Africa between 2000 and 2017, with a focus on the relationship between public- and private-sector earnings. Although remuneration is likely to increase over time in both sectors, this does not necessarily mean these increases are related to each other.Nov 2019
Thu, 18 November 2021
Fri, 12 November 2021
After our new Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered his first Medium Term Budget...
Tue, 03 August 2021
An issue often overlooked in many discussions is that of exports and trade in the South African economy. But with a downward trajectory over the past 20 years having indirectly cost our general...
Thu, 15 July 2021
At a time when tensions are rising due to growing inequality and unemployment, ERSA’s host...
Thu, 24 June 2021
Only three times in the last century has monetary policy been re-evaluated and tested to its limits. This global pandemic has forced many central banks around the world to use non-conventional...
Fri, 14 May 2021
It is just over a year since South Africa had to succumb to what was considered one of the most draconian national lockdowns, and as expected, we have noticed a...
Mon, 03 May 2021
Have you ever wondered how sensitive the South African Rand is to shocks in other currencies? Instead of debating the relative volatility of the rand or the factors influencing this volatility,...
Thu, 29 April 2021
It is not often that a country has an opportunity to allocate windfall government funds. Between the external pressure to stabilize our debt burden after the unexpected pandemic and the internal...
Thu, 15 April 2021
Thu, 18 March 2021
In our second podcast with Dr Daan Steenkamp, a lead economist at the South African Reserve Bank, we delve further into how nowcasting works and discuss the latest research regarding the suite of...