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Latest Working Papers
- Publication
The Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Weather Shocks: Evidence from Tanzania
We examine whether early-life exposure to rainfall shocks has a long-term impact on health, education, and the socioeconomic statuses of individuals in rural Tanzania, where livelihoods heavily depend on rain-fed agriculture. We use a unique panel of data from a Kagera Health and Development Survey...Read moreApr 2022 - Publication
Climate Change and Child Health: A Nigerian Perspective
The detrimental effect of climate change on health is becoming an essential topic of economic research and policymaking. The negative impact of rising temperatures and extreme weather events on children’s health outcomes and their human capital is especially concerning. This study investigates the...Read moreJun 2022 - Publication
The bond market impact of the South African Reserve Bank bond purchase programme
We use a unique dataset comprising over a million trades and quotes to assess the impact of the unexpected announcement of a bond purchase programme by the South African Reserve Bank on intraday market liquidity, yields and pricing volatility. Our dataset details the timing and order details of...Read moreMar 2022 - Publication
Revisiting the accuracy of inflation forecasts in Nigeria: The oil price-exchange rate-asymmetry perspectives
Motivated by the distinctive paradoxical nature of the Nigerian economy as the only OPEC oil-exporting economy that yet depends heavily on the importation of gasoline, we are compelled to re-examine the accuracy of the oil-based augmented Philips curve model in the predictability of inflation...Read moreFeb 2022 - Publication
Equivalence scales with endogeneity and base independence
This study estimates food budget share equations to calculate household equivalence scales that address both base-independence and potential endogeneity, even though an instrument that satisfies the usual exclusion restriction may not be available. The application incorporates semi-parametric...Read moreFeb 2022
Featured Policy Papers
- Publication
Sailing into the Wind: evaluating the (near)future of Monetary Policy in South Africa
This paper evaluates the main challenges facing South African monetary policy. We focus on three main issues: the external environment, the growth potential of the economy and its fiscal balance. The external environment will remain uncertain and volatile and South Africa monetary policy should...Read moreApr 2021
Featured Policy Bulletin
- Policy bulletin
Policy Bulletin 05: The impact of global FX liquidity on the rand
Read moreThe Covid crisis saw significant declines in market liquidity and calls for central banks to step in. Most research into foreign exchange (FX) liquidity does not consider a large cross-section of emerging market currency pairs...
- Policy bulletin
Policy Bulletin 04: Electricity reforms: Experience and approach
Read moreSouth Africa has been experiencing electricity shortages since 2008. Load shedding is taking place even at the moment, despite a large contraction in economic activity due to the Covid-19 crisis. It is time to reform the electricity market and breakdown Eskom’s vertically integrated monopoly. An...
- Policy bulletin
Policy Bulletin 03: Macroeconomic policy options for a savings constrained economy: the case of South Africa
Read moreEconomic growth requires delivering a credible fiscal consolidation plan that shifts spending towards investment in infrastructure, human capital accumulation and a environmentally sustainable economy. Fiscal policy has to move first, reducing risk...
- Policy bulletin
Policy Bulletin 02: Reflections on Aspects of Public Finance and Fiscal Policy in South Africa
Read moreAfter the COVID-19 crisis is over, South Africa will face a fiscal mountain that looks insurmountable. Many of the problems experienced in the public finances originated outside of the fiscus and have to be addressed at source, neither fiscal discretion, nor fiscal rules or any...
- Policy bulletin
Policy Bulletin 01: A fair price for economic modelling? Transparency required
Read moreThe ERSA policy bulletin is a vehicle for lightly reviewed, preliminary research on current policy issues and debates. The series emphasizes brief, focused, and timely interventions. The desk review will evaluate ethical and professional standards, basic research design, and the interest of the...
Upcoming events
- Jul 15 2022Event /Skills Training / Workshop
Call for Papers: Competition Policy and Regulation in Digital Markets Workshop
Background and Objective:
The rapid growth of digitalisation in the modern economy is transforming markets and challenging competition policy. As the internet and the... - Sep 05 2022Event /Skills Training / Workshop
Workshop on Macroeconomic Research and Modelling
Background
Our economic society has been struggling with the shortage of macroeconomists for long time. Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA), in partnership with the... - Nov 28 2022Event /Webinar
Emerging Markets back in the spotlight: Risks and policy options
Background and Objective:
Emerging markets have been out of the news for almost two decades. They fared better than advanced economies during the Great Financial Crisis and...
Latest Conversations
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Fri, 13 May 2022
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Thu, 18 November 2021
Post-pandemic, South Africa’s economy finds itself in a constrained fiscal environment...
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Fri, 12 November 2021
After our new Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered his first Medium Term Budget...
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Tue, 03 August 2021
An issue often overlooked in many discussions is that of exports and trade in the South African economy. But with a downward trajectory over the past 20 years having indirectly cost our general...
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Thu, 15 July 2021
At a time when tensions are rising due to growing inequality and unemployment, ERSA’s host...
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Thu, 24 June 2021
Only three times in the last century has monetary policy been re-evaluated and tested to its limits. This global pandemic has forced many central banks around the world to use non-conventional...
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Fri, 14 May 2021
It is just over a year since South Africa had to succumb to what was considered one of the most draconian national lockdowns, and as expected, we have noticed a...
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Mon, 03 May 2021
Have you ever wondered how sensitive the South African Rand is to shocks in other currencies? Instead of debating the relative volatility of the rand or the factors influencing this volatility,...
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Thu, 29 April 2021
It is not often that a country has an opportunity to allocate windfall government funds. Between the external pressure to stabilize our debt burden after the unexpected pandemic and the internal...
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Thu, 15 April 2021
Featured Policy Briefs
- Publication
Assessing inflation targeting and its communication
It is less onerous to achieve policy objectives when they are clear, credibly implemented and appropriately communicated, all of which reduces uncertaintyRead moreNov 2019 - Publication
Relating public and private remuneration
The study explores remuneration patterns in South Africa between 2000 and 2017, with a focus on the relationship between public- and private-sector earnings. Although remuneration is likely to increase over time in both sectors, this does not necessarily mean these increases are related to each other.Read moreNov 2019