JEL code: E32

Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Equivalence scales with endogeneity and base independence
This study estimates food budget share equations to calculate house...
Published: 1 March 2022
Steven F. Koch
Working Paper
Measuring and testing a modified version of the South African financial cycle
This study reports on measuring and testing of a Composite Financia...
Published: 5 October 2021
Paul F. Muzindutsi, Malibongwe C. Nyati, Christian K. Tipoy
Working Paper
Health inequality and the 1918 Influenza in South Africa
The 1918 influenza – the Spanish flu – killed an estimated 6% of Sou...
Published: 8 February 2021
Jonathan Jayes, Johan Fourie
Working Paper
The transmission of monetary policy via the banks' balance sheet - does bank size matter?
We study the credit channel of monetary policy in South Africa betw...
Published: 29 January 2021
Tumisang Loate, Nicola Viegi
Working Paper
Dr Chris Loewald on Lockdown Learnings: monetary policy leeway during a pandemic
Shortly after the October MPR, ERSA’s host sat down with Dr Chris L...
Published: 16 October 2020
Chris Loewald
Podcast
Isaah Mhlanga on why South Africa’s unemployment rate went down this Covid-Quarter
In this podcast, ERSA’s host speaks to Isaah Mhlanga, a Chief Econo...
Published: 2 October 2020
Isaah Mhlanga
Podcast
Prof Johannes W. Fedderke on the South African – US sovereign bond spread: how is this ...
In this podcast, Prof. Johannes W. Fedderke, the Director of ERSA s...
Published: 29 May 2020
Johannes W. Fedderke
Podcast
The optimal monetary and macroprudential policies for the South African economy
We investigate the optimal design and effectiveness of monetary and...
Published: 7 February 2020
Thabang Molisey, Guangling Dave Liu
Working Paper
A New Keynesian DSGE model for low income economies with foreign exchange constraints
The existing literature is clear that low income economies tend to ...
Published: 23 September 2019
Bertha C. Bangara
Working Paper
The effectiveness of counter-cyclical loan-to-value regulations: generic versus sector-...
This paper considers the implications of the counter-cyclical loan-...
Published: 16 August 2019
Thabang Molisey, Guangling Dave Liu
Working Paper
Monetary policy in a model with commodity and financial market research brief
Uncovering the key drivers of business cycles of commodity exportin...
Published: 2 July 2019
Vo Phuong Mai Le, Ruthira Naraidoo
Policy Brief
Monetary policy in a model with commodity and financial market
This paper builds a small open economy model for a net commodity ex...
Published: 14 May 2019
Vo Phuong Mai Le, Ruthira Naraidoo
Working Paper
Fiscal policy and adjustment in a foreign exchange constrained economy: Evidence from M...
Most of the recent literature analysing the adjustments of macroeco...
Published: 5 April 2019
Bertha C. Bangara, Amos C. Peters
Policy Brief
Optimal Monetary Policy with Output and Asset Price Volatility in an Open Economy: Evid...
This paper attempts to establish optimal response of monetary polic...
Published: 27 February 2018
Peter Wamalwa
Working Paper
Macroprudential policy and foreign interest rate shocks: A comparison of different inst...
This paper presents a generic small open economy real business cycl...
Published: 27 October 2017
Guangling Dave Liu, Chris Garbers
Working Paper
Flow specific capital controls for emerging markets
This paper investigates the impact of capital controls on business ...
Published: 27 October 2017
Guangling Dave Liu, Chris Garbers
Working Paper
The welfare cost of macro-prudential policy in a two-country DSGE model
This paper builds a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions...
Published: 30 May 2017
Hilary Patroba
Working Paper
Is There A SADC Business Cycle: Evidence from Dynamic Factor Model
Countries that are successfully executing trade and economic libera...
Published: 30 May 2017
Ntokozo P. Nzimande, Harold P. E. Ngawala
Policy Brief
Capital controls and foreign currency denomination
This paper studies the effectiveness of capital controls with forei...
Published: 24 February 2017
Guangling Dave Liu, Fernando Garcia-Barragan
Working Paper
Can bank capital adequacy changes amplify the business cycle in South Africa?
The phenomenon of bank regulation procyclicality requires very care...
Published: 21 February 2017
Sylvanus Ikhide, Foluso Akinsola
Policy Brief
South Africa's real business cycles: The cycle is the trend
It has been argued that business cycles in emerging economies are s...
Published: 14 February 2017
Leroi Raputsoane, Hilary Patroba
Policy Brief
Is There a SADC Business Cycle? Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model
Countries that adopt a common currency automatically relinquish the...
Published: 30 November 2016
Ntokozo P. Nzimande, Harold P. E. Ngawala
Working Paper
Credit market heterogeneity, balance sheet (in) dependence, financial shocks
This paper presents a real business cycle model with financial fric...
Published: 12 September 2016
Chris Garbers, Guangling Dave Liu
Working Paper
South Africa’s real business cycles: The Cycle is the trend
This paper tests the ‘cycle is the trend’ hypothesis. We investigat...
Published: 1 July 2016
Leroi Raputsoane, Hilary Patroba
Working Paper
Estimating South Africa’s Output Gap Potential Growth Rate
This paper estimates the potential output of the South African econ...
Published: 19 February 2016
Johannes W. Fedderke, Daniel K. Mengisteab
Working Paper
Can currency in circulation predict South African economic activity?
The forecasting of economic activity is of interest to governments,...
Published: 17 February 2016
Jannie Rossouw, Fanie Joubert, Cobus Vermeulen, Adél Bosch
Policy Brief
Comovement Between Africa and Advanced Economies: 1980-2011
This paper analyses business cycle comovement between African econo...
Published: 3 February 2016
Elsabé Loots, Carike Claassen, Alain Kabundi
Working Paper
Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa
This paper develops a new index of economic uncertainty for South A...
Published: 17 March 2015
Chris Redl
Working Paper
Credit spread variability in U.S. business cycles: The Great Moderation versus the Grea...
This paper establishes the prevailing financial factors that influe...
Published: 20 August 2014
Hylton Hollander, Guangling Dave Liu
Working Paper
A Note on the (continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in ...
In 2002/03 the yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that neve...
Published: 8 August 2014
Ferdi Botha, Gavin Keeton
Working Paper
Credit Procyclicality and Financial Regulation in South Africa
This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the econ...
Published: 21 July 2014
James Bernstein, Eric Schaling, Leroi Raputsoane
Working Paper
Credit Procyclicality and Financial Regulation in South Africa
This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the econ...
Published: 21 July 2014
James Bernstein, Eric Schaling, Leroi Raputsoane
Working Paper
The reliability of South African real-time output gap estimates
Estimates of the output gap are an important component of policy-ma...
Published: 23 April 2014
Jessica Kramer, Greg Farrell
Working Paper
Kalman Filtering and Online Learning Algorithms for Portfolio Selection
This paper proposes a new online learning algorithms for portfolio ...
Published: 28 November 2013
Raphael Nkomo, Alain Kabundi
Working Paper
Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries
Working Paper 362 This study examines the impact of China’s dominan...
Published: 1 August 2013
Mustafa Y. Çakir, Alain Kabundi
Working Paper
The Equity Price Channel in a New-Keynesian DSGE Model with Financial Frictions and Ban...
This paper studies the role of the equity price channel in business...
Published: 23 July 2013
Hylton Hollander, Guangling Dave Liu
Working Paper

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