JEL code: E32

Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Equivalence scales with endogeneity and base independence
This study estimates food budget share equations to calculate house...
Steven F. Koch
Working Paper
Measuring and testing a modified version of the South African financial cycle
This study reports on measuring and testing of a Composite Financia...
Paul F. Muzindutsi, Malibongwe C. Nyati, Christian K. Tipoy
Working Paper
Health inequality and the 1918 Influenza in South Africa
The 1918 influenza – the Spanish flu – killed an estimated 6% of Sou...
Jonathan Jayes, Johan Fourie
Working Paper
The transmission of monetary policy via the banks' balance sheet - does bank size matter?
We study the credit channel of monetary policy in South Africa betw...
Tumisang Loate-Ntsoko, Nicola Viegi
Working Paper
Dr Chris Loewald on Lockdown Learnings: monetary policy leeway during a pandemic
Shortly after the October MPR, ERSA’s host sat down with Dr Chris L...
Margaux Giannaros, Christopher Loewald
Podcast
Isaah Mhlanga on why South Africa’s unemployment rate went down this Covid-Quarter
In this podcast, ERSA’s host speaks to Isaah Mhlanga, a Chief Econo...
Margaux Giannaros, Isaah Mhlanga
Podcast
Prof Johannes W. Fedderke on the South African – US sovereign bond spread: how is this ...
In this podcast, Prof. Johannes W. Fedderke, the Director of ERSA s...
Margaux Giannaros, Johannes W. Fedderke
Podcast
The optimal monetary and macroprudential policies for the South African economy
We investigate the optimal design and effectiveness of monetary and...
Thabang Molisey, Guangling Liu
Working Paper
A New Keynesian DSGE model for low income economies with foreign exchange constraints
The existing literature is clear that low income economies tend to ...
Bertha C. Bangara
Working Paper
The effectiveness of counter-cyclical loan-to-value regulations: generic versus sector-...
This paper considers the implications of the counter-cyclical loan-...
Thabang Molisey, Guangling Liu
Working Paper
Monetary policy in a model with commodity and financial market research brief
Uncovering the key drivers of business cycles of commodity exportin...
Vo Phuong Mai Le, Ruthira Naraidoo
Policy Brief
Monetary policy in a model with commodity and financial market
This paper builds a small open economy model for a net commodity ex...
Vo Phuong Mai Le, Ruthira Naraidoo
Working Paper
Fiscal policy and adjustment in a foreign exchange constrained economy: Evidence from M...
Most of the recent literature analysing the adjustments of macroeco...
Bertha C. Bangara, Amos C. Peters
Policy Brief
Optimal Monetary Policy with Output and Asset Price Volatility in an Open Economy: Evid...
This paper attempts to establish optimal response of monetary polic...
Peter Wamalwa
Working Paper
Macroprudential policy and foreign interest rate shocks: A comparison of different inst...
This paper presents a generic small open economy real business cycl...
Guangling Liu, Chris Garbers
Working Paper
Flow specific capital controls for emerging markets
This paper investigates the impact of capital controls on business ...
Guangling Liu, Chris Garbers
Working Paper
The welfare cost of macro-prudential policy in a two-country DSGE model
This paper builds a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions...
Hilary Patroba
Working Paper
Is There A SADC Business Cycle: Evidence from Dynamic Factor Model
Countries that are successfully executing trade and economic libera...
Ntokozo P. Nzimande, Harold P. E. Ngawala
Policy Brief
Capital controls and foreign currency denomination
This paper studies the effectiveness of capital controls with forei...
Guangling Liu, Fernando Garcia-Barragan
Working Paper
Can bank capital adequacy changes amplify the business cycle in South Africa?
The phenomenon of bank regulation procyclicality requires very care...
Sylvanus Ikhide, Foluso Akinsola
Policy Brief
South Africa's real business cycles: The cycle is the trend
It has been argued that business cycles in emerging economies are s...
Leroi Raputsoane, Hilary Patroba
Policy Brief
Is There a SADC Business Cycle? Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model
Countries that adopt a common currency automatically relinquish the...
Ntokozo P. Nzimande, Harold P. E. Ngawala
Working Paper
Credit market heterogeneity, balance sheet (in) dependence, financial shocks
This paper presents a real business cycle model with financial fric...
Chris Garbers, Guangling Liu
Working Paper
South Africa’s real business cycles: The Cycle is the trend
This paper tests the ‘cycle is the trend’ hypothesis. We investigat...
Leroi Raputsoane, Hilary Patroba
Working Paper
Estimating South Africa’s Output Gap Potential Growth Rate
This paper estimates the potential output of the South African econ...
Johannes W. Fedderke, Daniel K. Mengisteab
Working Paper
Can currency in circulation predict South African economic activity?
The forecasting of economic activity is of interest to governments,...
Jannie Rossouw, Fanie Joubert, Cobus Vermeulen, Adél Bosch
Policy Brief
Comovement Between Africa and Advanced Economies: 1980-2011
This paper analyses business cycle comovement between African econo...
Elsabé Loots, Carike Claassen, Alain Kabundi
Working Paper
Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa
This paper develops a new index of economic uncertainty for South A...
Chris Redl
Working Paper
Credit spread variability in U.S. business cycles: The Great Moderation versus the Grea...
This paper establishes the prevailing financial factors that influe...
Hylton Hollander, Guangling Liu
Working Paper
A Note on the (continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in ...
In 2002/03 the yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that neve...
Ferdi Botha, Gavin Keeton
Working Paper
Credit Procyclicality and Financial Regulation in South Africa
This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the econ...
James Bernstein, Eric Schaling, Leroi Raputsoane
Working Paper
Credit Procyclicality and Financial Regulation in South Africa
This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the econ...
James Bernstein, Eric Schaling, Leroi Raputsoane
Working Paper
The reliability of South African real-time output gap estimates
Estimates of the output gap are an important component of policy-ma...
Jessica Kramer, Greg Farrell
Working Paper
Kalman Filtering and Online Learning Algorithms for Portfolio Selection
This paper proposes a new online learning algorithms for portfolio ...
Raphael Nkomo, Alain Kabundi
Working Paper
Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries
Working Paper 362 This study examines the impact of China’s dominan...
Mustafa Y. Çakir, Alain Kabundi
Working Paper
The Equity Price Channel in a New-Keynesian DSGE Model with Financial Frictions and Ban...
This paper studies the role of the equity price channel in business...
Hylton Hollander, Guangling Liu
Working Paper