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The High-Frequency Response of the Rand-Dollar rate to Inflation Surprises

26 September 2012
Publication Type: Working Paper
JEL Code: E31, E52, F30, F31

We examine the high-frequency response of the rand-dollar nominal rate within ten-minute intervals around (five minutes before, five minutes after) official inflation announcements, and show that the rand appreciates (respectively, depreciates) on impact when inflation is higher (respectively, lower) than expected. The effect only applies after the adoption of inflation targeting, and is stronger for good news. Our findings are rationalized by the belief, among market participants, in a credible (though perhaps not particularly aggressive) inflation targeting policy in South Africa; and can be used to monitor changes in currency market perceptions about the monetary policy regime.

Working Paper 279
1 March 2012
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