Risk and Uncertainty | Economic Research Southern Africa

Keyword: Risk and Uncertainty

The South African sovereign term premium and its drivers

Discussion Document 15 South Africa’s sovereign yield curve is one ...

Ruan Erasmus, Daan Steenkamp

Discussion Document

Contagion across financial markets during COVID-19: A look at volatility spillovers bet...

The onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) and previous...

Reneé van Eyden, Goodness C. Aye, Chevaughn van der Westhuizen

Working Paper

Prof Nicola Viegi on evaluating the near future of monetary policy in SA: Sailing into ...

Only three times in the last century has monetary policy been re-ev...

Nicola Viegi

Podcast

Dr Rossouw van Jaarsveld on developing a forex network model: how to highlight risk tra...

Have you ever wondered how sensitive the South African Rand is to s...

Rossouw van Jaarsveld

Podcast

Health inequality and the 1918 Influenza in South Africa

The 1918 influenza – the Spanish ﬂu – killed an estimated 6% of Sou...

Jonathan Jayes, Johan Fourie

Working Paper

Dr Neryvia Pillay Bell on the Fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa:...

In this podcast Dr Neryvia Pillay Bell, a Policy Associate at ERSA ...

Neryvia Pillay Bell

Podcast

Nicola Viegi on the South African economic response to the Coronavirus: policies and pr...

Nicola Viegi, Deputy Director of ERSA, talks with Margaux G on the ...

Nicola Viegi

Podcast

Nicola Viegi on the potential impact of the Coronavirus on South Africa: policy co-ordi...

In this podcast, Prof. Nicola Viegi, the Deputy Director of ERSA an...

Nicola Viegi

Podcast

Prof. Johanne Fedderke on the differential impact of the Coronavirus as of end of March...

Professor Johannes W. Fedderke, the Director of ERSA speaks to our ...

Johannes W. Fedderke

Podcast

Shaking out or shaking in: The impact of Zimbabwe’s economic crisis on the country’s ma...

Following Zimbabwe’s economic crisis between 1997 and 2009, a...

Nicholas Masiyandima, Lawrence Edwards

Policy Brief

Shaking out or shaking in: The impact of Zimbabwe's economic crisis on the country's ma...

Zimbabwe had one of the world’s worst economic crises from th...

Nicholas Masiyandima, Lawrence Edwards

Working Paper

Risk Preferences and the Poverty Trap: A Look at Technology Uptake amongst Smallholder ...

A number of studies suggest the risk preference of low income indiv...

Martine Visser, Kerri Brick, Hafsah Jumare

Working Paper

Do monetary policy announcements affect foreign exchange returns and volatility? Some e...

Our empirical study addresses the question: How does the South Afri...

Jannie Rossouw, Greg Farrell, Cyril May

Policy Brief

Capturing the Black Swan: Scenario-Based Asset Allocation with Fat Tails and Non-Linear...

This paper highlights the shortfalls of Modern Portfolio Theory (MP...

Vsevolod I. Gorlach

Working Paper

Aid Volatility and Structural Economic Transformation in sub-Saharan Africa

To what extent does Official Development Assistance (ODA) volatilit...

Thomas Yeboah, Muazu Ibrahim, Emmanuel Kumi

Policy Brief

Information Contagion and Systemic Risk

We examine the effect of ex-post information contagion on the ex-an...

Toni Ahnert, Co-Pierre Georg

Working Paper

Do monetary policy announcements affect foreign exchange returns and volatility? Some ...

This paper examines the temporal effect of domestic monetary policy...

Jannie Rossouw, Greg Farrell, Cyril May

Working Paper

Aid Volatility and Structural Economic Transformation in sub-Saharan Africa: Does Finan...

This paper departs from the traditional aid–economic growth studies...

Thomas Yeboah, Muazu Ibrahim, Emmanuel Kumi

Working Paper

Financial sector development, economic volatility and shocks in sub-Saharan Africa

The role of financial sector development in economic volatility has...

Paul Alagidede, Muazu Ibrahim

Policy Brief

Alternative Strategies for Public Debt Issuance in Zimbabwe: Is there a Trade off?

Introduction As part of managing a debt portfolio, debt managers fa...

Pierre Le Roux, Nebson Mupunga

Policy Brief

Simulation Analysis of Alternative Strategies for Public Debt Issuance in Zimbabwe: Is ...

This paper discusses the simulation analysis of alternative public ...

Pierre Le Roux, Nebson Mupunga

Working Paper

Third Annual Financial Economics Workshop

Keynote Speaker: Atif Mian (Princeton University) Following the fir...

Atif Mian

Workshop

Bayesian learning with multiple priors and non-vanishing ambiguity

The existing models of Bayesian learning with multiple priors by Ma...

Wei Ma, Alexander Zimper

Working Paper

Contagious Synchronization and Endogenous Network Formation in Financial Networks

When banks choose similar investment strategies the financial syste...

Christoph Aymanns, Co-Pierre Georg

Working Paper

Contagious Synchronization and Endogenous Network Formation in Financial Networks

When banks choose similar investment strategies the financial syste...

Christoph Aymanns, Co-Pierre Georg

Working Paper

Second Annual Financial Economics Workshop

Following the first workshop on financial economics in Cape Town in...

Sascha Steffen, Franklin Allen

Workshop

Profiling Sectoral Risks of Foreign Direct Investment in Africa

Despite Africa’s exceptional FDI performance during the past decade...

Zahné Coetzee, Henri Bezuidenhout, Carike Claassen

Working Paper

Modelling Stock Return Volatility Dynamics in Selected African Markets

This paper examines whether accounting for structural changes in th...

Ferdi Botha, Daniel King

Working Paper

Biased Bayesian Learning with an Application to the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle

Based on the axiomatic framework of Choquet decision theory, we dev...

Alexander Zimper, Alexander Ludwig

Working Paper

First Annual Financial Economics Workshop: Financial Economics and the Nexus of Growth,...

The recent financial crisis has challenged our understanding of the...

UCT Graduate School of Business

Workshop

Is Water Shedding Next?

South Africa is in the grip of an electricity crisis marked by a eu...

Jan H. van Heerden, James N. Blignaut

Working Paper

A Theoretically Defensible Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle I...

While economic theory assumes that risk is of central importance in...

Johannes W. Fedderke, Neryvia Pillay Bell

Working Paper

Impact of the Current Crisis on Development Thinking

Prof Bheki Sibiya, Director and Head of Wits Business School, cordi...

John Williamson

Workshop

Deriving a theoretically defensible measure of risk

According to economic theory, risk is a central consideration in fi...

Johannes W. Fedderke, Neryvia Pillay Bell

Policy Brief

Arbitrage, Cointegration and Efficiency in Financial Markets in the Presence of Financi...

The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Genesis Analyt...

Working Paper

Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change and Conflict in Africa

We consider the effects of climate change on seasonally migrant pop...

Nathan Nunn, Eoin F. McGuirk

Working Paper