E32 | Economic Research Southern Africa

JEL code: E32

Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Arthur Galego Mendes – The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil

Abstract This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic impa...

Arthur Galego Mendes

Workshop Paper

Juvenal - Unveiling the Dance of Commodity Prices and the Global Financial Cycle

Abstract We investigate the effects of changes in commodity prices ...

Workshop Paper

Equivalence scales with endogeneity and base independence

This study estimates food budget share equations to calculate house...

Steven F. Koch

Working Paper

Measuring and testing a modified version of the South African financial cycle

This study reports on measuring and testing of a Composite Financia...

Paul F. Muzindutsi, Malibongwe C. Nyati, Christian K. Tipoy

Working Paper

The effectiveness of counter-cyclical loan-to-value regulations: generic versus sector-...

This paper considers the implication of the counter-cyclical loan-t...

Guangling Liu

Working Paper

Health inequality and the 1918 Influenza in South Africa

The 1918 influenza – the Spanish ﬂu – killed an estimated 6% of Sou...

Jonathan Jayes, Johan Fourie

Working Paper

The transmission of monetary policy via the banks' balance sheet - does bank size matter?

We study the credit channel of monetary policy in South Africa betw...

Tumisang Loate-Ntsoko, Nicola Viegi

Working Paper

Dr Chris Loewald on Lockdown Learnings: monetary policy leeway during a pandemic

Shortly after the October MPR, ERSA’s host sat down with Dr Chris L...

Margaux Giannaros, Christopher Loewald

Podcast

Isaah Mhlanga on why South Africa’s unemployment rate went down this Covid-Quarter

In this podcast, ERSA’s host speaks to Isaah Mhlanga, a Chief Econo...

Margaux Giannaros, Isaah Mhlanga

Podcast

Prof Johannes W. Fedderke on the South African – US sovereign bond spread: how is this ...

In this podcast, Prof. Johannes W. Fedderke, the Director of ERSA s...

Margaux Giannaros, Johannes W. Fedderke

Podcast

The optimal monetary and macroprudential policies for the South African economy

We investigate the optimal design and effectiveness of monetary and...

Thabang Molisey, Guangling Liu

Working Paper

A New Keynesian DSGE model for low income economies with foreign exchange constraints

The existing literature is clear that low income economies tend to ...

Bertha C. Bangara

Working Paper

The effectiveness of counter-cyclical loan-to-value regulations: generic versus sector-...

This paper considers the implications of the counter-cyclical loan-...

Thabang Molisey, Guangling Liu

Working Paper

Monetary policy in a model with commodity and financial market research brief

Uncovering the key drivers of business cycles of commodity exportin...

Vo Phuong Mai Le, Ruthira Naraidoo

Policy Brief

Monetary policy in a model with commodity and financial market

This paper builds a small open economy model for a net commodity ex...

Vo Phuong Mai Le, Ruthira Naraidoo

Working Paper

Fiscal policy and adjustment in a foreign exchange constrained economy: Evidence from M...

Most of the recent literature analysing the adjustments of macroeco...

Bertha C. Bangara, Amos C. Peters

Policy Brief

Optimal Monetary Policy with Output and Asset Price Volatility in an Open Economy: Evid...

This paper attempts to establish optimal response of monetary polic...

Peter Wamalwa

Working Paper

Macroprudential policy and foreign interest rate shocks: A comparison of different inst...

This paper presents a generic small open economy real business cycl...

Guangling Liu, Chris Garbers

Working Paper

Flow specific capital controls for emerging markets

This paper investigates the impact of capital controls on business ...

Guangling Liu, Chris Garbers

Working Paper

The welfare cost of macro-prudential policy in a two-country DSGE model

This paper builds a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions...

Hilary Patroba

Working Paper

Is There A SADC Business Cycle: Evidence from Dynamic Factor Model

Countries that are successfully executing trade and economic libera...

Ntokozo P. Nzimande, Harold P. E. Ngawala

Policy Brief

Capital controls and foreign currency denomination

This paper studies the effectiveness of capital controls with forei...

Guangling Liu, Fernando Garcia-Barragan

Working Paper

Can bank capital adequacy changes amplify the business cycle in South Africa?

The phenomenon of bank regulation procyclicality requires very care...

Sylvanus Ikhide, Foluso Akinsola

Policy Brief

South Africa's real business cycles: The cycle is the trend

It has been argued that business cycles in emerging economies are s...

Leroi Raputsoane, Hilary Patroba

Policy Brief

Is There a SADC Business Cycle? Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model

Countries that adopt a common currency automatically relinquish the...

Ntokozo P. Nzimande, Harold P. E. Ngawala

Working Paper

Credit market heterogeneity, balance sheet (in) dependence, financial shocks

This paper presents a real business cycle model with financial fric...

Chris Garbers, Guangling Liu

Working Paper

South Africa’s real business cycles: The Cycle is the trend

This paper tests the ‘cycle is the trend’ hypothesis. We investigat...

Leroi Raputsoane, Hilary Patroba

Working Paper

Estimating South Africa’s Output Gap Potential Growth Rate

This paper estimates the potential output of the South African econ...

Johannes W. Fedderke, Daniel K. Mengisteab

Working Paper

Can currency in circulation predict South African economic activity?

The forecasting of economic activity is of interest to governments,...

Jannie Rossouw, Fanie Joubert, Cobus Vermeulen, Adél Bosch

Policy Brief

Comovement Between Africa and Advanced Economies: 1980-2011

This paper analyses business cycle comovement between African econo...

Elsabé Loots, Carike Claassen, Alain Kabundi

Working Paper

Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa

This paper develops a new index of economic uncertainty for South A...

Chris Redl

Working Paper

Credit spread variability in U.S. business cycles: The Great Moderation versus the Grea...

This paper establishes the prevailing financial factors that influe...

Hylton Hollander, Guangling Liu

Working Paper

A Note on the (continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in ...

In 2002/03 the yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that neve...

Ferdi Botha, Gavin Keeton

Working Paper

Credit Procyclicality and Financial Regulation in South Africa

This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the econ...

James Bernstein, Eric Schaling, Leroi Raputsoane

Working Paper

Credit Procyclicality and Financial Regulation in South Africa

This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the econ...

James Bernstein, Eric Schaling, Leroi Raputsoane

Working Paper

The reliability of South African real-time output gap estimates

Estimates of the output gap are an important component of policy-ma...

Jessica Kramer, Greg Farrell

Working Paper