0:00:00 – Introduction
0:00:13 – Slide 1: Introduction
0:00:37 – Slide 2: Overview
0:01:08 – Slide 3: Motivation and contribution
0:02:18 – Slide 4: Contribution to the literature
0:02:44 – Slide 5: Some stylised facts
0:04:12 – Slide 6: Stylised fact 1: r greater than g
0:07:35 – Slide 7: Stylised fact 1: r greater than g past few years
0:08:18 – Question
0:09:05 – Slide 7: Stylised fact 1: r greater than g past few years
0:09:25 – Slide 8: Stylised fact 1: r greater than g past few years
0:10:46 – Slide 9: Stylised fact 1: South Africa is in fiscal stress r greater than g
0:11:14 – Slide 10: Stylised fact 1: South Africa is in fiscal stress r – g greater than
0 0:11:48 – Slide 11: Stylised fact 1: South Africa is in fiscal stress r – g greater than pbsus
0:12:29 – Slide 12: Stylised fact 2: The current fiscal trajectory is not working 1
0:13:05 – Slide 13: Stylised fact 2: The current fiscal trajectory is not working 2
0:13:43 – Slide 14: Stylised fact 2: The current fiscal trajectory is not working 3
0:14:12 – Slide 15: Stylised fact 2: The current fiscal trajectory is not working 4
0:15:30 – Slide 16: Stylised fact 3: Fiscal, monetary and macro-prudential policy have been poorly coordinated
0:16:12 – Slide 17: Stylised fact 4: We are operating in a second-best world
0:18:07 – Slide 18: Methodology – Optimal policy and loss function
0:19:19 – Slide 19: Optimal policy: Optimal simple rules
0:20:25 – Slide 20: Results – Optimal fiscal policy
0:21:28 – Slide 21: Results – Optimal fiscal policy
0:21:43 – Slide 22: Results – Optimal policy coordination
0:21:51 – Slide 20: Results – Optimal fiscal policy
0:22:18 – Slide 21: Results – Optimal fiscal policy
0:22:18 – Slide 22: Results – Optimal policy coordination
0:22:26 – Slide 25: Counterfactuals
0:22:30 – Question
0:25:28 – Question
0:30:19 – Question
0:33:34 – Question
0:33:36 – Question
0:36:04 – Question
0:40:37 – Slide 25: Counterfactuals
0:40:47 – Slide 26: Counterfactual – Debt stabilisation
0:41:11 – Slide 26: Counterfactual – Debt stabilisation
0:41:20 – Slide 27: Impact on output of scenarios
0:41:26 – Slide 28: Sustainability gap
0:41:29 – Slide 29: Impact on long-rates estimate of r
0:41:41 – Slide 30: Inflation and the short-term policy rate
0:41:46 – Slide 31: COVID-19, monetary policy, and debt stabilisation
0:42:24 – Slide 34: Conclusion – what to do when r greater than g?
0:44:02 – Chair: Outro
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