Session 8: Tumisang Loate – A macroeconomic effect of fiscal policy in SA: A narrative analysis

00:00:00 – Chair Intro
00:00:15 – Slide 1: Introduction
00:00:58 – Slide 2: Overview
00:01:48 – Slide 3: Background and motivation
00:02:09 – Slide 4: Background and motivation
00:02:57 – Slide 5: Background and motivation
00:04:27 – Slide 6: Background and motivation
00:05:29 – Slide 7: Summary of our findings
00:07:08 – Slide 8: Literature
00:08:40 – Slide 9: Narrative analysis: endogenous vs exogenous
00:11:49 – Slide 10: Narrative analysis
00:13:24 – Question
00:15:32 – Slide 10: Narrative analysis
00:16:54 – Slide 11: Narrative analysis
00:19:59 – Question
00:20:59 – Question
00:22:33 – Question
00:22:48 – Slide 12: Table summarising personal income tax changes
00:28:02 – Slide 13: Figure 4: Narrative shocks vs APITR vs Recessions
00:29:28 – Slide 14: Figure 5: Narrative shocks vs APITR vs SARB Expansions
00:30:16 – Slide 15: The SVAR-IV model – Mertens and Ravn
00:34:22 – Slide 16: Methodology continued
00:34:48 – Slide 17: Results – Full Sample + All shocks
00:35:26 – Slide 18: Results – Full Sample + All shocks
00:35:56 – Slide 19: Results – Full Sample + All shocks
00:36:21 – Slide 20: Results – Full Sample + Marginal tax rates
00:36:55 – Slide 21: Results – Full Sample + Marginal tax rates
00:37:14 – Slide 22: Results – 1996Q1 to 2010Q4 + All shocks
00:37:43 – Slide 23: Results – 1996Q1 to 2010Q4 + All shocks
00:38:09 – Slide 24: Implied tax multipliers
00:39:08 – Slide 25: Quality of identification for the true shocks
00:40:11 – Slide 26: Quality of the narrative
00:40:41 – Slide 27: Positive relationship between Z and e
00:41:06 – Slide 28: Concluding remarks
00:41:11 – Question and comments
00:46:44 – Chair: Outro