Three Cycles: Housing, Credit and Real Activity

22 September 2012
Publication Type: Working Paper
JEL Code: E32, E44, F40

We examine the characteristics and co movement of cycles in house prices, credit, real activity and interest rates in advanced economies during the past 25 years, using a dynamic generalized factor model. House price cycles generally lead credit and business cycles over the long term, while in the short to medium run the relationship varies across countries. Interest rates tend to lag other cycles at all time horizons. While global factors are important, the U.S. business cycle, house price cycle and interest rate cycle tend to lead the respective cycles in other countries over all time horizons. However, the U.S. credit cycle leads mostly over the long term.

Working Paper 160
1 January 2010