The principle of transparency is the only way that policy makers can understand the limitations of a model and use its outputs effectively to inform policy.

In the absence of this transparency, there is no accountability and claims cannot be tested. An example of this is the recent report by Applied Development Research Solutions (ADRS).

The report ignores standard modelling practices and generates questionable results.

The ADRS model authors claim that the model is very big. Large and complex models are difficult to understand. They generate “blackbox” results, as neither the modeller nor the user of the outputs can understand how the results are generated.

The model appears to ignore supply constraints, economic trade-offs, financial market dynamics and key monetary and fiscal policy relationships.