Policy Bulletin 05: The impact of global FX liquidity on the rand
The Covid crisis saw significant declines in market liquidity and calls for central banks to step in. Most research into foreign exchange (FX) liquidity does not consider a large cross-section of emerging market currency pairs or include the rand (ZAR) in its analysis, so this note sheds light on the intra-day behaviour of foreign currency […]
Policy Bulletin 02: Reflections on Aspects of Public Finance and Fiscal Policy in South Africa
After the COVID-19 crisis is over, South Africa will face a fiscal mountain that looks insurmountable. Many of the problems experienced in the public finances originated outside of the fiscus and have to be addressed at source, neither fiscal discretion, nor fiscal rules or any fiscal framework, will be effective unless there is collective commitment […]
Policy Bulletin 04: Electricity reforms: Experience and approach
South Africa has been experiencing electricity shortages since 2008. Load shedding is taking place even at the moment, despite a large contraction in economic activity due to the Covid-19 crisis. It is time to reform the electricity market and breakdown Eskom’s vertically integrated monopoly. An efficient energy production and a competitive energy market are the […]
Policy Bulletin 03: Macroeconomic policy options for a savings constrained economy: the case of South Africa
Economic growth requires delivering a credible fiscal consolidation plan that shifts spending towards investment in infrastructure, human capital accumulation and a environmentally sustainable economy. Fiscal policy has to move first, reducing risk premia and the neutral real rate, allowing monetary policy to respond beyond what has been able to do until now, constrained by the […]
Policy Bulletin 01: A fair price for economic modelling? Transparency required
The principle of transparency is the only way that policy makers can understand the limitations of a model and use its outputs effectively to inform policy. In the absence of this transparency, there is no accountability and claims cannot be tested. An example of this is the recent report by Applied Development Research Solutions (ADRS). […]
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