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Monetary Policy Response to Foreign Aid in an Estimated DSGE Model of Malawi

22 May 2013
Publication Type: Working Paper
JEL Code: C11, C13, E52, E62, F31, F35

This paper estimates a Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of Malawi and uses it to account for short-run monetary policy response to aid inflows between 1980 and 2010. In particular, the paper evaluates the existence of a “Dutch Disease” following an increase in foreign aid and examines the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) reaction to aid inflows under different monetary policy rules. The paper finds strong evidence of “Taylor rule” like response of monetary policy to aid inflows. It also shows that a ‘Dutch Disease’ did not exist in Malawi because aid inflows were found to be associated with currency depreciation and not the expected real currency appreciation. There is also evidence of a low impact of a positive aid shock on currency depreciation and inflation when RBM engages in targeting monetary aggregates than when the authorities use the Taylor rule and incomplete sterilisation.

Series title: Working paper 350
1 May 2013
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