Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries

15 January 2013
Publication Type: Working Paper
JEL Code: C3, E32

This paper investigates the co-movement of business cycles between South Africa and the other BRICS countries namely, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the so-called BRICs. In particular, it identifies the nature and key features of the co-movement of cycles of South African economy with cycles of the BRICs. It uses the dynamic factor model to a set of 307 macroeconomic series during the period 1995Q2-2009Q4. We find significant evidence of synchronization between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the business cycle, although the magnitude of co-movement differs with each country. India portrays strong ties with South Africa over time. Moreover, Brazil, China, and Russia lead South Africa in the long-run, while India is contemporaneous. Further, the findings imply that the first two factors are BRICS factors while the third one is a US factor.

Working paper 324
1 January 2013
Journal: Applied Economics, 2013
25 July 2013