Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA), in collaboration with the South African Reserve Bank, is pleased to invite you to a two-day conference focused on Modelling and Forecasting in Central Banking: Methods and Developments. Recent global developments have underscored the critical importance of modelling and forecasting in central banking. This conference was a platform where academics, policymakers, central bankers, and experts discussed innovative methodologies, assessed current practices, and explored emerging developments in this field.
Programme Details:
Day 1
| Start | End | Description | Speakers |
| 09:00 | 10:00 | Keynote address – Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach | Michele Lenza (ECB and CEPR) |
| 10:00 | 10:30 | Break | |
| 10:30 | 11:10 | Predicting Commodity Prices using Machine Learning Models | Mathias Manguzvane (SARB) |
| 11:10 | 11:50 | Time series forecasting with a statistical ensemble model : an application for global goods trade volume prediction | Fitahiana Razafimhein (Universitat Rovira i Virgili) |
| 11:50 | 12:50 | Lunch | |
| 12:50 | 13:30 | The Role of Aggregate Demand in the Transmission of Monetary Policy in Zambia | Mataa Wakumelo (Bank of Zambia) |
| 13:30 | 14:10 | Market Reaction to SARB Forecasting | Charl van Schoor (UP and SARB) |
| 14:10 | 14:40 | Break | |
| 14:40 | 15:20 | The macroeconomic impact of climate change in South Africa | Guangling Liu (SU) |
| 15:20 | 16:00 | The Macroeconomic Relevance of Mobile Money | Mphatso Elias Ackim (UP) |
Day 2
| Start | End | Description | Contact |
| 09:00 | 09:40 | What drives the recent surge in inflation? The historical decomposition roller coaster | Francesco Furlanetto (Norges Bank) |
| 09:40 | 10:20 | Treasury Bills as Benchmark for Interest Rate Based Monetary Policy in Ethiopia | Tewodros Gebrewolde (Bank of Ethiopia) |
| 10:20 | 10:50 | Break | |
| 10:50 | 12:05 | Policy Roundtable – Is Macroeconomic Forecasting fit for Pourpose? | Nicola Viegi (UP and ERSA fellow) Michele Lenza (ECB and CEPR) Andrea Masia (RMB Morgan Stanley) |
| 12:05 | 12:05 | Lunch | |
| 13:05 | 13:45 | Commodity Price Shocks and Global Cycles: Monetary Policy Matters | Lorenzo Mori (University of Padova) |
| 13:45 | 14:25 | Fiscal policy and commodity price shocks in South Africa | Vincent Dadam (UP and ERSA) |
| 14:25 | 14:55 | Break | |
| 14:55 | 15:35 | Macroeconomic fundamentals and investor sentiment: Does economic policy uncertainty matter? | Ojo Adelakun (UKZN) |
Organisers
Romain Houssa (University of Namur, ERSA)
Giovanni Ricco (CREST – ´Ecole Polytechnique, CEPR, ERSA)
Nicola Viegi (University of Pretoria, ERSA)
For any further information or if you have any questions, please email Claudine Tshabalala, organiser at ERSA (claudine@econrsa.org) with the subject header “Modelling and Forecasting in Central Banking: Methods and Developments”.
by 