Home

>

The time-varying elasticity of South African electricity demand: 1980–2018

This study estimates the price and income elasticity coefficients of domestic South African electricity demand for the period 1980 to 2018, considering both the aggregate economy as well as the mining sector in isolation. South African electricity prices were falling in real terms between 1983–2005. It then increased sharply in response to substantial tariff increases between 2008–2011. A time-varying parameter model with the Kalman filter is applied to estimate the evolution of the elasticities over time. This allows the analysis to distinguish between the two regimes of decreasing and increasing real electricity prices, and evaluate the evolution of demand elasticities accordingly. The main result, consistent with existing South African literature, is that electricity consumption was unresponsive to price changes in the period of falling real electricity prices up to 2005. However, when real prices started increasing, the price elasticity coefficient increased markedly in absolute terms. This indicates that aggregate price sensitivity is notably higher when real prices are increasing. A secondary result is that electricity consumption in the mining sector, due to the inertial nature of mining operations, is much less responsive to price changes.

Working paper 839
1 November 2020
Related Journal

Energy Journal
SHARE THIS Working Paper PUBLICATION:

Related South Africa’s Cities and Growth Spatial Challenges and Policy Interventions Content

Request for Proposals: The role of cities as drivers of growth and employment
Background Urbanization in South Africa is expected to reach 80% by...
Call for Work
South Africa’s future will be decided in our cities
Discussion Document 14 South Africa’s cities face multiple, overlap...
Dieter von Fintel, Justin Visagie, Ivan Turok, Takwanisa Machemedze, Claus Rabe, Sebastian Galiani, Edward Glaeser
Discussion Document
Monitoring South Africa’s metropolitan economies: A survey of the data landscape
Discussion Document 13 Disparities in data across different metropo...
Dieter von Fintel
Discussion Document
Cities, productivity and Jobs in SA: Problems and potential
Discussion Document 12 Cities contribute to national prosperity bec...
Ivan Turok, Justin Visagie
Discussion Document
Place-based economic policies: international lessons for South Africa
Discussion Document 11 Place-based policies are designed to support...
Harris Selod, Claus Rabe
Discussion Document
What luminosity data can and cannot reveal about South Africa’s urban economies
Discussion Document 10 As novel types of data are becoming availabl...
Takwanisa Machemedze
Discussion Document
Crime: A policy-oriented survey
Discussion Document 9 South Africa has a reputation for having high...
Sebastian Galiani
Discussion Document
Virtual CDE Workshop on SA Cities and Growth
Urban economics has provided powerful insights into how the charact...
Workshop