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The Fertility Transition: Panel Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

7 July 2016
Publication Type: Policy Brief, Working Paper
JEL Code: I25, J13, O55

We investigate the effects of different socioeconomic indicators on fertility rates in 48 sub-Saharan African countries between 1970 and 2012. The results, based on panel analysis with fixed effects and instrumental variables, show that initially income per capita and infant mortality explain a signi…cant part of the fertility decline in the region. However, the introduction of technology as an instrument augments the effect of education in reducing fertility. The results also provide signi…cant evidence for fertility declines through increased female education. These results support empirical evidence of the uni…ed growth theory which emphasises the role of technology in raising the demand for education and bringing about a demographic transition during the Post-Malthusian period.

Working paper 620
1 July 2016
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