Home

>

Fiscal Rules and the Compliance debate: Why do Countries adopt Rules and fail to comply?

We study the compliance with fiscal rules via various national numeric rules. Based on 20 sub-Sahara African countries with 57 fiscal rules in force from 1997 to 2016, our analysis identifies determinants among the rule specific characteristics, as well as their macroeconomic and political environments. To meet the objectives of our study, we employ a logistic model. Our analysis reveals that, while the average compliance rate is around 54 percent, there is significant heterogeneity among both individual rules and national compliance rates. The analysis shows that the debt rule has a higher probability of compliance compared to balanced budget and revenue rules, respectively. Furthermore, the analysis shows that rules supported with independent monitoring institutions, as well as those covering the central government, have a higher probability of compliance. Moreover, the findings show that GDP per capita and grants enhance the probability of compliance, while corruption increases a country’s probability of non-compliance. To address endogeneity that may arise in our analysis, we employ an IV Probit model, and our results still stand.

Working paper 815
1 April 2020
SHARE THIS Working Paper PUBLICATION:

Related South Africa’s Cities and Growth Spatial Challenges and Policy Interventions Content

Request for Proposals: The role of cities as drivers of growth and employment
Background Urbanization in South Africa is expected to reach 80% by...
Call for Work
South Africa’s future will be decided in our cities
Discussion Document 14 South Africa’s cities face multiple, overlap...
Dieter von Fintel, Justin Visagie, Ivan Turok, Takwanisa Machemedze, Claus Rabe, Sebastian Galiani, Edward Glaeser
Discussion Document
Monitoring South Africa’s metropolitan economies: A survey of the data landscape
Discussion Document 13 Disparities in data across different metropo...
Dieter von Fintel
Discussion Document
Cities, productivity and Jobs in SA: Problems and potential
Discussion Document 12 Cities contribute to national prosperity bec...
Ivan Turok, Justin Visagie
Discussion Document
Place-based economic policies: international lessons for South Africa
Discussion Document 11 Place-based policies are designed to support...
Harris Selod, Claus Rabe
Discussion Document
What luminosity data can and cannot reveal about South Africa’s urban economies
Discussion Document 10 As novel types of data are becoming availabl...
Takwanisa Machemedze
Discussion Document
Crime: A policy-oriented survey
Discussion Document 9 South Africa has a reputation for having high...
Sebastian Galiani
Discussion Document
Virtual CDE Workshop on SA Cities and Growth
Urban economics has provided powerful insights into how the charact...
Workshop