Home

>

Exploring Unbalanced Growth in South Africa: Understanding the Sectoral Structure of the South African Economy

This paper explores the reasons for the unbalanced growth structure of South Africa. While a number of emerging markets show a high proportion of value added and employment being generated by the service sector, South Africa is one of very few such economies that also show a strong decline in manufacturing. In this paper we begin by an extensive presentation of the evidence that details the structural changes in the economy that have led to this unusual economic structure. In what follows we provide an explanation of the observed changes that rests of four distinct structural forces in the economy. First, on the supply-side of the economy, we confirm the well-known fact of differential total factor productivity (TFP) growth across sectors. Combined with a price elasticity of demand that is below unity, this leads to a prediction of labour shedding in sectors that have high TFP growth, and labour absorption in sectors with low TFP growth. Second, on the demand-side of the economy, economic sectors also face a differential income elasticity of demand, with “old” sectors such as agriculture and mining falling below unity, “new” sectors particularly in services reporting elasticities above unity. With income growth, this leads to a restructuring of demand from primary and secondary sectors to the tertiary sectors of the economy. Finally, we also consider the structural implications of inefficiencies in the labour and output markets of the economy. Pricing of labour, the rate of return on employment, and the pricing power of producers in output markets are all considered. The combination of the supplyside, the demand-side, and the factor market forces allow for a successful four category typology of sectors. Type 1 sectors are high TFP growth, labour shedding, with output growth moderated by low income elasticity of demand. Examples are Manufacturing and Construction. Type 2 sectors are low TFP and output growth, but with labour absorption moderated by low rates of return on the cost of employing labour. Examples are Agriculture and Mining. Type 3 sectors are high TFP growth, labour shedding, and output growth accelerated by high income elasticity of demand. Examples are the Utilities, Trade and Communications sectors. Type 4 sectors are low TFP growth, labour absorbing, with output growth accelerated by high income elasticity of demand. Examples are provided by the Finance sectors.

Working paper 468
1 September 2014
Related Journal

Economic Modelling, (2018) 1 – 13
1 June 2018
SHARE THIS Working Paper PUBLICATION:

Related South Africa’s Cities and Growth Spatial Challenges and Policy Interventions Content

Request for Proposals: The role of cities as drivers of growth and employment
Background Urbanization in South Africa is expected to reach 80% by...
Call for Work
South Africa’s future will be decided in our cities
Discussion Document 14 South Africa’s cities face multiple, overlap...
Dieter von Fintel, Justin Visagie, Ivan Turok, Takwanisa Machemedze, Claus Rabe, Sebastian Galiani, Edward Glaeser
Discussion Document
Monitoring South Africa’s metropolitan economies: A survey of the data landscape
Discussion Document 13 Disparities in data across different metropo...
Dieter von Fintel
Discussion Document
Cities, productivity and Jobs in SA: Problems and potential
Discussion Document 12 Cities contribute to national prosperity bec...
Ivan Turok, Justin Visagie
Discussion Document
Place-based economic policies: international lessons for South Africa
Discussion Document 11 Place-based policies are designed to support...
Harris Selod, Claus Rabe
Discussion Document
What luminosity data can and cannot reveal about South Africa’s urban economies
Discussion Document 10 As novel types of data are becoming availabl...
Takwanisa Machemedze
Discussion Document
Crime: A policy-oriented survey
Discussion Document 9 South Africa has a reputation for having high...
Sebastian Galiani
Discussion Document
Virtual CDE Workshop on SA Cities and Growth
Urban economics has provided powerful insights into how the charact...
Workshop