Background

As a small open economy, export growth is critical to South Africa’s future growth and development.  However, despite emphasis on boosting export growth and diversification in key policy frameworks, South Africa’s export growth has remained stagnant, lagging that of other developing economies.  Moreover, exports remain heavily concentrated in minerals and metal products, and, based on indicators of economic complexity, South Africa has experienced a decline in the number of products with a revealed comparative advantage and limited structural transformation.

Project overview

In response, Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) has launched a research initiative focused on empirical research that advances our understanding of the key drivers of South Africa’s export performance.  The intention is to build a body of empirical research to inform policymakers on new and more targeted policy interventions to unlock South Africa’s export potential.

This Request for Proposals follows input from various sources including engagements with government stakeholders and the following research publications:

• Trade Policy Research Priorities for South Africa (See Appendix B)
• Getting Exports Back on Track

Key gaps identified in these engagements are structured around three broad focus areas:

1. Understanding South Africa’s export underperformance, specifically at the firm-level. Areas of consideration include exporter dynamics, firm strategies to expand exports, opportunities to grow services exports, and the role of the exchange rate, firm-to-firm networks, export finance and domestic and foreign trade barriers in driving exporter participation and performance.
2. Evaluating the impact of trade and industrial policies on South African exports. Areas of focus can include, amongst others: (i) The effectiveness South Africa’s industrial and trade policies (including export promotion) and incentives in raising competitiveness and improving export performance, (ii) Successes and lessons from the Black Industrialist Programme, Black Exporter Network and Export Marketing and Investment Assistance in boosting exports, (iii) The distributional and gendered effects of tariff policies and industrial incentives, and (v) Systems and processes to enable credible evaluations of the effectiveness of trade and industrial policies.
3. Addressing new trade issues around the green transition, digital transformation and geopolitical fragmentation affecting exports. New trade issues to be studied include, for example, the use of trade barriers including green taxes (e.g. European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)), America First Trade Policy of the Trump administration, the implications of inshoring/ reshoring/ friendshoring for South African exporters, and digital trade issues, including the Digital Trade Protocol of the AfCFTA, the World Trade Organisation moratorium (to 2026) on customs duties, the collection of accurate data on digital trade, and the distributional effects of digital trade.

Call for Proposals

ERSA invites submissions for working papers that provide in-depth analysis of topics that broadly fit within the specified focus areas.

While no restrictions are imposed on data and empirical methods used, studies that use novel data, including survey data, and provide new insights on causal associations will be prioritised. Researchers may utilise data from the National Treasury Secure Data Facility (NT-SDF) and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB).

To facilitate access, we strongly encourage collaboration with economists from the National Treasury and SARB.  While co-authorship is not required to access the data, it is highly recommended, as working with an employee from these institutions significantly expedites the approval process.  We also encourage researchers from these institutions to submit proposals and co-authoring with researchers at academic institutions.

For more information on the datasets available at the NT-SDF, please visit:
National Treasury Secure Data Facility – Available Datasets. The South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin provides detailed time-series data on exports and other indicators. Subject to approval of the proposal, SARB may be able to provide access to transaction level export and import data.

Submission guidelines

• Click [here] for proposal template and guidelines
• Submission of Request for SARB/NT Co-Author: 2 April 2025
• Proposal Submission Deadline: 19 May 2025
• Evaluation: Proposals will be reviewed by ERSA’s Research Committee, with external feedback as needed. To reduce the risk of impartiality, committee members will be prevented from commenting on proposals from their colleagues.
• Notification of Decisions: 2 June 2025

Expectations placed on accepted proposals

• Present preliminary findings at a researchers’ workshop in November 2025.
• Present near-final findings at a conference in March/April 2025.
• Submit final papers to the ERSA Working Paper Series by April/May 2026.
• Submit policy brief or executive summary by May 2026.

Ownership and dissemination

Researchers will retain ownership of their work.  ERSA reserves the right to promote and disseminate the research findings to the broader academic and policy community.  The Research Committee may request periodic progress reports.

Funding

Final papers will be published in the ERSA Working Paper Series, subject to the formal review process.  Papers accepted for publication will receive R50,000.  Researchers must also provide a policy brief, executive summary, or economic note summarising their findings.  Additional funding is available for travel and or necessary research costs, especially for travel and accommodation for on-site data access, subject to an assessment of value for money.