Alcohol and short-run mortality: evidence from a modern-day prohibition

On July 13, 2020 a complete nation-wide ban was placed on the sale and transport of alcohol in South Africa. This paper evaluates the impact of this sudden and unexpected five-week alcohol prohibition on mortality due to unnatural causes. We find that the policy reduced the number of unnatural deaths by 21 per day, or approximately 740 over the five-week period. This constitutes a 14% decrease in the total number of deaths due to unnatural causes. We argue that this represents a lower bound on the impact of alcohol on short-run mortality, and underscores the severe influence that alcohol has on society—even in the short-run. Kai Barron is currently a Research Fellow at the WZB-Berlin, which is part of the Berlin School of Economics (BSE). He received his PhD from University College London and previously completed his undergraduate studies at the University of Cape Town. His research fields are experimental, behavioural and development economics, with a particular focus on belief formation, moral behaviour and health.