Home

>

Price Discovery and Price Risk Management Before and After Deregulation of the South African Maize Industry

The withdrawal of the Maize Board in 1996 meant that farmers could no longer rely on its pre-planting price or “voorskot” for price discovery and price risk management. Some have claimed (UNCTAD, 2007) that the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) can provide these functions. We test this claim and analyse the implications of it. To do so, we build on an acreage response model developed earlier by Chavas and Holt (1990) by allowing for a futures market as well as accounting for farmer heterogeneity and the relative impact of price risk and yield risk. We first establish farmers’ responsiveness to risk by determining their risk aversion and, more specifically, whether they exhibit decreasing aggregate risk aversion (DARA). We find that farmers are risk averse and display positive wealth effects, which may be due to DARA. We can say little about how farmers have reacted to the price discovery function of expected prices both before and after the withdrawal of the Maize Board. However, we can conclude that farmers have responded less to price risk post-1996, even though prices were more volatile during this period. This supports UNCTAD’s (2007) claim. Combined with the finding of positive wealth effects the policy implication is that an improvement in the financial position of farmers as well as their access to futures markets can help reduce the impact and disutility of risk and, hence, improve their welfare without the need for regulation.

Working Paper 263
1 December 2011
SHARE THIS Working Paper PUBLICATION:
25 September 2012
Publication Type: Working Paper
JEL Code: C33, Q11, Q13, Q18

Related South Africa’s Cities and Growth Spatial Challenges and Policy Interventions Content

Request for Proposals: The role of cities as drivers of growth and employment
Background Urbanization in South Africa is expected to reach 80% by...
Call for Work
South Africa’s future will be decided in our cities
Discussion Document 14 South Africa’s cities face multiple, overlap...
Dieter von Fintel, Justin Visagie, Ivan Turok, Takwanisa Machemedze, Claus Rabe, Sebastian Galiani, Edward Glaeser
Discussion Document
Monitoring South Africa’s metropolitan economies: A survey of the data landscape
Discussion Document 13 Disparities in data across different metropo...
Dieter von Fintel
Discussion Document
Cities, productivity and Jobs in SA: Problems and potential
Discussion Document 12 Cities contribute to national prosperity bec...
Ivan Turok, Justin Visagie
Discussion Document
Place-based economic policies: international lessons for South Africa
Discussion Document 11 Place-based policies are designed to support...
Harris Selod, Claus Rabe
Discussion Document
What luminosity data can and cannot reveal about South Africa’s urban economies
Discussion Document 10 As novel types of data are becoming availabl...
Takwanisa Machemedze
Discussion Document
Crime: A policy-oriented survey
Discussion Document 9 South Africa has a reputation for having high...
Sebastian Galiani
Discussion Document
Virtual CDE Workshop on SA Cities and Growth
Urban economics has provided powerful insights into how the charact...
Workshop

Search Resources

Ground Floor Brookside Building
11 Imam Haron Road
Claremont, 7700
Cape Town

PostNet Suite # 109
Private Bag X1005
Claremont 7735
Cape Town

Get Social