Fed hikes could trigger US recession — and global uncertainty

Russian invasion of Ukraine gave a stagflation shock to the global economy.

When 2022 began I thought it was going to be a year of two halves. The first half was going to be about rising inflation, central banks in the advanced economies beginning to hike interest rates and rising market volatility. The second half was going to be about an accelerated interest rate hiking cycle as central banks’ assessment of inflation transitioned — pun intended — from transitory to persistent, and economic growth concerns.

The Russia-Ukraine war is a stagflation shock to the global economy and has compressed what I thought would be year-long themes into the first half. Beyond the first half the environment is highly uncertain…