Bayesian analysis | Economic Research Southern Africa

Keyword: Bayesian analysis

South Africa’s real business cycles: The Cycle is the trend

This paper tests the ‘cycle is the trend’ hypothesis. We investigat...

Leroi Raputsoane, Hilary Patroba

Working Paper

The impact of monetary policy on household consumption in South Africa. Evidence from V...

This paper investigates the “cost of credit effect” of monetary pol...

Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere

Working Paper

Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa

This paper uses nowcasting to forecast real GDP growth in South Afr...

Elmarie Nel, Franz Ruch, Alain Kabundi

Policy Brief

Second Annual Econometrics Workshop: Bayesian Statistics in Econometrics

Invited Speaker: Professor Donald B. Rubin (Harvard) At the first E...

Donald Rubin

Workshop

Bayesian learning with multiple priors and non-vanishing ambiguity

The existing models of Bayesian learning with multiple priors by Ma...

Wei Ma, Alexander Zimper

Working Paper

Evolution of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Malawi: A TVP-VAR with Stochasti...

This paper investigates the evolution of monetary transmission mech...

Manoel Bittencourt, Chance Mwabutwa, Nicola Viegi

Working Paper

Biased Bayesian Learning with an Application to the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle

Based on the axiomatic framework of Choquet decision theory, we dev...

Alexander Zimper, Alexander Ludwig

Working Paper

Important Channels of Transmission Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa

This paper investigates the di¤erent channels of transmission of mo...

Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou, Alain Kabundi

Working Paper

The Equity Price Channel in a New-Keynesian DSGE Model with Financial Frictions and Ban...

This paper studies the role of the equity price channel in business...

Hylton Hollander, Guangling Liu

Working Paper

The emergence of "fifty-fifty" probability judgements in a conditional Savage world

This paper models the empirical phenomenon of persistent fifty-fift...

Alexander Zimper

Working Paper

Will the SARB always succeed in fighting inflation with contractionary policy?

The conventional view is that a monetary policy shock has both supp...

Guangling Liu

Working Paper

A Large Factor Model for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in South Africa

This paper uses large Factor Models (FMs) which accommodates a larg...

Rangan Gupta, Alain Kabundi

Working Paper

Adaptive Bayesian Analysis for Binomial Proportions

We consider the problem of statistical inference of binomial propor...

Sonali Das, Sourish Das

Working Paper

Asset pricing in a Lucas ‘fruit-tree’ economy with non-additive beliefs

We study a Lucas (1978) “fruit-tree” economy under the ...

Alexander Zimper

Working Paper

A parsimonious model of subjective life expectancy

This paper develops a theoretical model for the formation of subjec...

Alexander Zimper, Alexander Ludwig

Working Paper