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During the past week the buzz word has been ‘voting’, given the nail-biting US elections that have recently taken place. In this podcast, ERSA’s host speaks to Dr Biniam Bedasso who is an expert...
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Featured Policy Bulletin
Policy Bulletin 04: Electricity reforms: Experience and approach
Read moreSouth Africa has been experiencing electricity shortages since 2008. Load shedding is taking place even at the moment, despite a large contraction in economic activity due to the Covid-19 crisis. It is time to reform the electricity market and breakdown Eskom’s vertically integrated monopoly. An...
Policy Bulletin 03: Macroeconomic policy options for a savings constrained economy: the case of South Africa
Read moreEconomic growth requires delivering a credible fiscal consolidation plan that shifts spending towards investment in infrastructure, human capital accumulation and a environmentally sustainable economy. Fiscal policy has to move first, reducing risk...
Policy Bulletin 02: Reflections on Aspects of Public Finance and Fiscal Policy in South Africa
Read moreAfter the COVID-19 crisis is over, South Africa will face a fiscal mountain that looks insurmountable. Many of the problems experienced in the public finances originated outside of the fiscus and have to be addressed at source, neither fiscal discretion, nor fiscal rules or any...
Policy Bulletin 01: A fair price for economic modelling? Transparency Required
Read moreThe principle of transparency is the only way that policy makers can understand the limitations of a model and use its outputs effectively to inform policy. In absence of this transparency, there is no accountability and claims cannot be tested. The first ERSA policy bulletin discusses how to...
Featured Policy Briefs
Assessing inflation targeting and its communication
It is less onerous to achieve policy objectives when they are clear, credibly implemented and appropriately communicated, all of which reduces uncertaintyRead moreNov 2019Relating public and private remuneration
The study explores remuneration patterns in South Africa between 2000 and 2017, with a focus on the relationship between public- and private-sector earnings. Although remuneration is likely to increase over time in both sectors, this does not necessarily mean these increases are related to each other.Read moreNov 2019
Latest Working Papers
Impact of Social Transfers on Depressive Symptoms: Evidence from the South African Old Age Pension
We study the effect of income receipt in form of Old age pension (OAP) on the prevalence of depressive symptoms using the Centre of Epidemiologic Studies Short Depression Scale (CES-D 10). We exploit the exogeneous age eligibility criteria in a regression discontinuity (RD) design to estimate the...Read moreOct 2020The impact of AGOA on Export Flows from sub-Saharan Africa: A dynamic system GMM analysis
This study seeks to understand the relationship between the United States imports from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the overall exports from SSA between 1996 and 2018. It examines the drivers of that relationship drawing from the existing theories of international trade. The study found that the...Read moreOct 2020Does Child Support Grant incentivise childbirth in South Africa?
We consider the perverse incentive that can be created for poor households that are benefiting from the South African Child Support Grant (CSG). We acknowledge the fact that the CSG has been successful in improving child outcomes. However, if caregivers see the CSG as a livelihood strategy and...Read moreSep 2020How Buoyant Is the South African Tax System? An ARDL Approach
This study aims to scrutinize the responsiveness of the South African tax system to changes in economic performance. The study made use of annual time series data spanning from 1995 – 2017. The tax system was found to be fairly buoyant, albeit there is still room for improvement. The ARDL bounds...Read moreSep 2020Does household net financial wealth explain the asymmetric reaction of household consumption to monetary policy shocks in South Africa?
Ndou et al (2019) showed that, in absolute terms, the decline in household consumption due to the monetary policy tightening shocks exceeds the increase in household consumption, following the monetary policy loosening shocks of the same magnitude. This paper applies a counterfactual vector...Read moreSep 2020
Upcoming Events
Kai Barron (Berlin School of Economics (BSE) "Alcohol and short-run mortality: evidence from a modern-day prohibition"
When: Tuesday, 24 November
Time: 4:00 PM (CAT) on Zoom
Register here
South African Macroeconomic Network (SAMNet)
Virtual Workshop: New Data, New Methods, New Models for Monetary Policy
When: Tuesday, 24 to Thursday, 26 November on Zoom
Online Course: Topics in the Economics of Education
When: Tuesday 01 to Thursday 03, December
Latest Conversations
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Wed, 11 November 2020
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Mon, 26 October 2020
With the unprecedented level of uncertainty in the economy, the ability to adapt has never been more important. This is especially true in the world of forecasting. In this podcast, ERSA’s host is...
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Fri, 16 October 2020
Levels of uncertainty have existed throughout time yet measuring uncertainty in the past has posed many challenges. An Associate Professor of Finance from Kellogg School of Management, Prof. Scott...
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Mon, 12 October 2020
Shortly after the October MPR, ERSA’s host sat down with Dr Chris Loewald, the Head of the Research Department at the Reserve Bank, and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee to discuss some of...
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Thu, 01 October 2020
Adapting to the times, ERSA introduces its new initiative – the South African Modelling Network. In this podcast, Margaux G meets up with ERSA’s Deputy...
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Fri, 02 October 2020
In this podcast, ERSA’s host speaks to Isaah Mhlanga, a Chief Economist at Alexander Forbes about the latest unemployment figures released by Statistics...
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Wed, 08 July 2020
Shortly after the Minister of Finance gave his Supplementary Budget Speech, ERSA’s host, Margaux G met up with Prof. Estian Calitz, an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of...
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Dr David Fowkes on QE and central bank balance sheet policies: Does South Africa have ‘magic money’?
Wed, 24 June 2020
Shortly after the Governor of the SARB gave his speech about the future of Monetary Policy in South Africa, ERSA’s host Margaux G met up with Dr David Fowkes, a...
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Wed, 27 May 2020
In this podcast, Prof. Johannes W. Fedderke, the Director of ERSA speaks to our host, Margaux G about his research on the South African – US sovereign bond spread. The cost that the South African...
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Thu, 23 April 2020
In this podcast Dr Neryvia Pillay Bell, a Policy Associate at ERSA and Senior Economics Lecturer at the University of Cape Town, discusses how South Africa’s labour market and the government...