Welcome to ERSA

Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) is a research programme which is being funded by the National Treasury of South Africa.

Latest Publications

Credit Procyclicality and Financial Regulation in South Africa by James Bernstein, Leroi Raputsoane and Eric Schaling
This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the economic cycle to determine its usefulness as a reference guide for implementing the countercyclical capital buffers for financial institutions in South Africa.
Democratisation in Africa: The Role of Self-Enforcing Constitutional Rules by Sophia du Plessis, Ada Jansen and Krige Siebrits
Following several decades during which violent civil conflict was common in African countries, the period from 1990 onwards was notably marked by a spreading and deepening of adherence to democratic principles.
Financial Stress Indicator Variables and Monetary Policy in South Africa by Leroi Raputsoane
This paper analyses the relationship between financial stress indicator variables and monetary policy in South Africa with emphasis on how robust these variables are related to the monetary policy interest rate.
The Economic Approach to Fertility: A Causal Mediation Analysis by Gauthier T. Kashalala and Steven F. Koch
This study develops an economic fertility model which explicitly incorporates both the costs of childrearing and contraception behaviour.
The Good African Society Index by Ferdi Botha
This paper constructs a Good Society Index for 45 African countries, termed the Good African Society Index (GASI).

Workshops

Political Economy/Public Choice Economics
Thursday, September 18, 2014 to Friday, September 19, 2014
CALL FOR PAPERS
Workshop location: Soweto Hotel and Conference Centre
The Second Economic Theory Workshop “Economies with Asymmetric Information”
Monday, November 10, 2014 to Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Keynote Speakers:
Workshop location: Hatfield Campus (University of Pretoria)
Second Annual Financial Economics Workshop
Thursday, November 27, 2014 to Friday, November 28, 2014
Following the first workshop on financial economics in Cape Town in December 2013, Economic Research Southern Africa, the South African Reserve Bank and the Wits Business Scho
Workshop location: South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria

Latest Journal Publications

Fixed-to-Mobile Substitution in the European Union by Lukasz Grzybowski
Telecommunications Policy (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2014.02.002)
This paper analyzes substitution between access to fixed-line and mobile telephony in the European Union. We estimate a structural model of household's demand for: (i) fixed-line only; (ii) mobile only; (iii) and both fixed-line and mobile access.
Using a choice experiment to manage the excess demand challenges facing the Sundays River Estuary recreational fishery in South Africa by Deborah E. Lee, Stephen G. Hosking and Mario Du Preez
Water South Africa (http://www.wrc.org.za/Lists/Knowledge%20Hub%20Items/Attachments/10581/2913%20abs...)
The Sundays River Estuary, situated in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, has excess recreational demand for estuarine services, specifically recreational fishing. The estuary has been over-fished, putting its sustainability at risk.
Can International Interventions Secure the Peace? by Anke Hoeffler
International Area Studies Review 2014, Vol 17 (1) pp 75-94 (http://ias.sagepub.com/content/17/1/75.full.pdf+html)
The international community uses a number of interventions to make and build peace. How effective are these interventions? What works and what does not? The discussion highlights the uncertainties when evaluating interventions.
Biased Bayesian Learning with an Application to the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle by Alexander Ludwig and Alexander Zimper
Journal of Economic Dynamic & Control (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2013.11.0007)
Based on the axiomatic framework of Choquet decision theory, we develop a closed-form model of Bayesian learning with ambiguous beliefs about the mean of a normal distribution.
Transformation, Job Creation and Subsidies to Creative Industries: The Case of South Africa’s Film and Television Sector by Alan Collins and Jen Snowball
International Journal of Cultural Policy (http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10286632.2013.874418)
Many governments have tried to stimulate economic growth via policy on the creative industries. South Africa is no different but additionally has an overarching aim of achieving social and labour market ‘transformation’ to move away from the legacy of the apartheid era.