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An issue often overlooked in many discussions is that of exports and trade in the South African economy. But with a downward trajectory over the past 20 years having indirectly cost our general...
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IO and Digital Transformation Seminar:
October 14: Philippe LeMay-Boucher (Heriot-Watt University), Contrasting the Impacts from two Formal Savings Devices: Evidence from a field experiment in Benin. Register here
Featured Policy Papers
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Sailing into the Wind: evaluating the (near)future of Monetary Policy in South Africa
This paper evaluates the main challenges facing South African monetary policy. We focus on three main issues: the external environment, the growth potential of the economy and its fiscal balance. The external environment will remain uncertain and volatile and South Africa monetary policy should...Read moreApr 2021
Latest Working Papers
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Measuring and Testing a Modified Version of the South African Financial Cycle
This study reports on measuring and testing of a Composite Financial Cycle Index (CFCI) as a modified version of a South African Financial Cycle (FC). This is achieved through the adoption of thirteen monthly financial time series indicators observed over the period 2000M1 to 2018M12. In this...Read moreOct 2021 - publication
Government Religious Preference and Intrastate Conflict
Understanding the causes and consequences of conflicts continues to be an important contribution to the economic development literature, particularly the mechanisms that can reduce civilian deaths. We contribute to understanding attacks on civilians and the spillover effects by analysing the impact...Read moreAug 2021 - publication
Risk and Return Spillovers in a Global Model of the Foreign Exchange Network
We developed a network model to capture the dynamic interactions among foreign exchange returns and realised risk measures among 20 developed and emerging market currencies, including the rand (ZAR). We demonstrate how this framework can be used to assess the sensitivity of a given currency to...Read moreAug 2021 - publication
Household debt and consumption dynamics: A non-developed world view following the financial crisis
According to recent macroeconomic evidence (Bosch and Koch 2020b; Farrell and Kemp 2020), the global financial crisis is still impacting the South African financial landscape more than 10 years later. In an effort to better understand the effect of the financial crisis, we examine household debt...Read moreJul 2021 - publication
Human Capital and the Timing of the First Birth
I construct and partially characterize the solution of a life-cycle model of fertility choice and human capital accumulation. Because children take time to raise, women face a trade-off between between lifetime earnings and childbearing. The model implies that (i) earnings must drop discontinuously...Read moreJul 2021
Featured Policy Bulletin
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Policy Bulletin 05: The impact of global FX liquidity on the rand
Read moreThe Covid crisis saw significant declines in market liquidity and calls for central banks to step in. Most research into foreign exchange (FX) liquidity does not consider a large cross-section of emerging market currency pairs...
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Policy Bulletin 04: Electricity reforms: Experience and approach
Read moreSouth Africa has been experiencing electricity shortages since 2008. Load shedding is taking place even at the moment, despite a large contraction in economic activity due to the Covid-19 crisis. It is time to reform the electricity market and breakdown Eskom’s vertically integrated monopoly. An...
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Policy Bulletin 03: Macroeconomic policy options for a savings constrained economy: the case of South Africa
Read moreEconomic growth requires delivering a credible fiscal consolidation plan that shifts spending towards investment in infrastructure, human capital accumulation and a environmentally sustainable economy. Fiscal policy has to move first, reducing risk...
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Policy Bulletin 02: Reflections on Aspects of Public Finance and Fiscal Policy in South Africa
Read moreAfter the COVID-19 crisis is over, South Africa will face a fiscal mountain that looks insurmountable. Many of the problems experienced in the public finances originated outside of the fiscus and have to be addressed at source, neither fiscal discretion, nor fiscal rules or any...
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Policy Bulletin 01: A fair price for economic modelling? Transparency Required
Read moreThe principle of transparency is the only way that policy makers can understand the limitations of a model and use its outputs effectively to inform policy. In absence of this transparency, there is no accountability and claims cannot be tested. The first ERSA policy bulletin discusses how to...
Featured Policy Briefs
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Assessing inflation targeting and its communication
It is less onerous to achieve policy objectives when they are clear, credibly implemented and appropriately communicated, all of which reduces uncertaintyRead moreNov 2019 - publication
Relating public and private remuneration
The study explores remuneration patterns in South Africa between 2000 and 2017, with a focus on the relationship between public- and private-sector earnings. Although remuneration is likely to increase over time in both sectors, this does not necessarily mean these increases are related to each other.Read moreNov 2019
Latest Conversations
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Tue, 03 August 2021
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Thu, 15 July 2021
At a time when tensions are rising due to growing inequality and unemployment, ERSA’s host...
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Thu, 24 June 2021
Only three times in the last century has monetary policy been re-evaluated and tested to its limits. This global pandemic has forced many central banks around the world to use non-conventional...
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Fri, 14 May 2021
It is just over a year since South Africa had to succumb to what was considered one of the most draconian national lockdowns, and as expected, we have noticed a...
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Mon, 03 May 2021
Have you ever wondered how sensitive the South African Rand is to shocks in other currencies? Instead of debating the relative volatility of the rand or the factors influencing this volatility,...
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Thu, 29 April 2021
It is not often that a country has an opportunity to allocate windfall government funds. Between the external pressure to stabilize our debt burden after the unexpected pandemic and the internal...
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Thu, 15 April 2021
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Thu, 18 March 2021
In our second podcast with Dr Daan Steenkamp, a lead economist at the South African Reserve Bank, we delve further into how nowcasting works and discuss the latest research regarding the suite of...
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Fri, 05 March 2021
After the challenges raised by Covid-19 and the increasing risks concerning South Africa’s fiscal sustainability, there were three objectives that the Finance...
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Thu, 18 February 2021
Joining ERSA’s host in this podcast is Isaah Mhlanga, a Chief Economist at Alexander Forbes. Together they discuss expectations for the upcoming 2021 Budget...