This paper examines the relationship between ination and ination expectations of analysts, business, and trade unions in South Africa during the inflation targeting (IT) regime. We consider inflation expectations based on the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) quarterly survey observed from 2000Q1 to 2013Q1. We estimate ination expectations of individual agents as the weighted average of lagged ination and the inflation target. The results indicate that expectations are heterogeneous across agents. Expectations of price setters (business and unions) are closely related to each other and are higher than the upper bound of the official target band, while expectations of analysts are within the target band. In addition, expectations of price setters are somewhat related to lagged ination and the opposite is true for analysts. The results reveal that the SARB has succesfully anchored expectations of analysts but that price setters have not sufficiently used the focal point implicit in the inflation targeting regime. The implication is that the SARB may be pushed to ccommodate private agents' expectations.
Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations in South Africa
Working paper 422
Subscribe to new publication notifications (quarterly)