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Working Papers

publication

Prenatal health and weather-related shocks under social safety net policy in Kenya

Silas Ongudi and Djiby Racine Thiam
Exposure to weather shocks around the time of birth has been shown to have deleterious effects on later life outcomes. In the short run, such shocks can lead to income loss, especially when households are not insured but rely heavily on rainfed agricultural activities. In the long run, however,...
Aug 2020
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publication

The South African - United States Sovereign Bond Spread and its Association with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Johannes W. Fedderke
The yield spread of South African to United States 10 year government bonds over the last 5 years has increased substantially to levels approaching those last seen during the mid-1980s. This yield spread increase is replicated in spreads relative to long-term German bonds, as well as for the spread...
Aug 2020
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A fiscus for better economic and social development in South Africa

Francois J Stofberg, Jan H van Heerden, and Heinrich R Bohlmann
After showing that the bulk of government expenditure is unproductive, we consider the impact of an alternative fiscal policy mix in South Africa. The alternative suggests freezing the real government wage bill for five years and using the savings generated by this decision to increase spending on...
Aug 2020
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Forest commons, vertical integration and smallholder’s saving and investment responses: Evidence from a quasi-experiment

Dambala Gelo
As the result of prohibitively high transaction costs, smallholder farmers are only partly integrated into agricultural and forest commodity markets, a situation that may leave them in a lower level of development equilibrium (i.e., a poverty trap). For the most part, many users of forest commons...
Aug 2020
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publication

Consumer Preferences for Genetically Modified Organisms in Cape Town: A Choice Experiment Approach

Benjamin Dovey and Herbert Ntuli
This paper reports a study done on Cape Town consumers, with the aim to understand how their purchasing decisions are shaped with respect to GMOs. A choice experiment approach was used to examine consumer preferences for biotechnology products in the food market. Four models were run to analyse the...
Jul 2020
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Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model

Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukovz, Iván Werning, Michael D. Whinston
We study targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the “young”,“the middle-aged” and the “old”. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for...
Jul 2020
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publication

The Political Economy of Palm Oil Expansion and Deforestation in Indonesia

Elías Cisnerosy, Krisztina Kis-Katosz and Nunung Nuryartono
This paper studies the interactions between political and economic incentives to foster forest conversion in Indonesian districts. Using a district–level panel data set from 2001 to 2016, we analyze variation in remotely sensed forest loss and forest fires as well as measures of land use licensing...
Jul 2020
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publication

Contagion without deposit insurance: The South African small bank crisis of 2002/3

Roy Havemann
Following the failure of Saambou bank in February 2002, another seven South African banks failed within a month, including the fifth-largest, and a further five within a year. In total, twenty-two small and mid-sized banks deregistered over two years: half the total number of banks, and nearly 10 per...
Jun 2020
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publication

Financial Statecraft: Government Choice of Debt Instruments

Eric Arias, Layna Mosely, B. Peter Rosendorff
We explore the diversity of means by which governments borrow - from commercial banks, sovereign bond issues, official bilateral creditors, and multilateral financial institutions. Although political economy scholars tend to analyze financing instruments in isolation from one another, governments...
Jun 2020
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