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Working Papers

publication

Time consistency and economic growth: A case study of South African macroeconomic policy

Christopher Loewald, David Faulkner and Konstantin Makrelov
The numerous diagnostic studies and policy recommendations that exist for South Africa typically focus on microeconomic constraints to growth. Higher potential growth certainly requires structural reforms to boost productivity growth, in particular to allow private competition and investment in...
Nov 2020
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'Quantitative Easing' and central bank asset purchases in South Africa: A DSGE approach

Cobus Vermeulen
This paper develops a small open-economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the effect of the temporary emergency purchases of government bonds by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) during 2020. The model is constructed in the portfolio balancing framework, in...
Nov 2020
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The time-varying elasticity of South African electricity demand: 1980–2018

Kabelo Masike, Cobus Vermeulen
This study estimates the price and income elasticity coefficients of domestic South African electricity demand for the period 1980 to 2018, considering both the aggregate economy as well as the mining sector in isolation. South African electricity prices were falling in real terms between 1983–2005...
Nov 2020
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Impact of Social Transfers on Depressive Symptoms: Evidence from the South African Old Age Pension

Adeola Oyenubi and Joseph Ajefu
We study the effect of income receipt in form of Old age pension (OAP) on the prevalence of depressive symptoms using the Centre of Epidemiologic Studies Short Depression Scale (CES-D 10). We exploit the exogeneous age eligibility criteria in a regression discontinuity (RD) design to estimate the...
Oct 2020
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The impact of AGOA on Export Flows from sub-Saharan Africa: A dynamic system GMM analysis

Oro, Oro Ufuo and Paul Alagidede
This study seeks to understand the relationship between the United States imports from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the overall exports from SSA between 1996 and 2018. It examines the drivers of that relationship drawing from the existing theories of international trade. The study found that the...
Oct 2020
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publication

Does Child Support Grant incentivise childbirth in South Africa?

Adeola Oyenubi and Uma Kollamparambil
We consider the perverse incentive that can be created for poor households that are benefiting from the South African Child Support Grant (CSG). We acknowledge the fact that the CSG has been successful in improving child outcomes. However, if caregivers see the CSG as a livelihood strategy and...
Sep 2020
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publication

How Buoyant Is the South African Tax System? An ARDL Approach

Baneng Naape and Nyasha Mahonye
This study aims to scrutinize the responsiveness of the South African tax system to changes in economic performance. The study made use of annual time series data spanning from 1995 – 2017. The tax system was found to be fairly buoyant, albeit there is still room for improvement. The ARDL bounds...
Sep 2020
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publication

Does household net financial wealth explain the asymmetric reaction of household consumption to monetary policy shocks in South Africa?

Eliphas Ndou
Ndou et al (2019) showed that, in absolute terms, the decline in household consumption due to the monetary policy tightening shocks exceeds the increase in household consumption, following the monetary policy loosening shocks of the same magnitude. This paper applies a counterfactual vector...
Sep 2020
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publication

Examining the determinants of electricity demand by South African households per income level

J.A Bohlmann, R. Inglesi-Lotz
For the period 1975 - 2016, this paper examines the determinants of the residential demand for electricity in South Africa including disposable income, electricity prices, food prices as well as the impact of the 2007/08 load-shedding wave and the 2008 electricity price restructuring. Given the...
Sep 2020
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