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Working Papers

Eg. "Apr 2020"
Publication

Risk and Return Spillovers in a Global Model of the Foreign Exchange Network

Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo, Daan Steenkamp and Rossouw van Jaarsveld
We developed a network model to capture the dynamic interactions among foreign exchange returns and realised risk measures among 20 developed and emerging market currencies, including the rand (ZAR). We demonstrate how this framework can be used to assess the sensitivity of a given currency to...
Aug 2021
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Publication

Household debt and consumption dynamics: A non-developed world view following the financial crisis

Adél Bosch, Matthew Clance and Steven F. Koch
According to recent macroeconomic evidence (Bosch and Koch 2020b; Farrell and Kemp 2020), the global financial crisis is still impacting the South African financial landscape more than 10 years later. In an effort to better understand the effect of the financial crisis, we examine household debt...
Jul 2021
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Publication

Differential corporate taxation and inter-asset investment distortions in South Africa

Mashekwa Maboshe
South Africa has since the 1990's actively reformed its corporate tax policy to stimulate investment in various assets and industries. While the investment impact of corporate taxation has been evaluated in various studies, no effort has been made to assess the potential inter-asset distortions due...
Jul 2021
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Publication

Fiscal risks and their impact on banks’ capital buffers in South Africa

Konstantin Makrelov, Neryvia Pillay and Bojosi Morule
South Africa’s fiscal balances have deteriorated significantly over the last decade, while the economy has been recording disappointing economic growth rates even prior to the COVID-19 crisis. In this paper, we estimate a series of equations using the Arellano and Bond (1991) estimator to test how...
Jun 2021
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Publication

‘Learning to export’ and ‘learning to innovate’: Revisiting the relationship between innovation and exports in African firms

Elvis Korku Avenyo, Fiona Tregenna and Kwanele Ngwadleka
This paper examines the relationship between innovation and export performance for African firms. We use Tobit simultaneous equation full information maximum likelihood (FIML) model with selection on a crosssectional dataset from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys for 28 African economies. The...
May 2021
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Publication

Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change and Conflict in Africa

Eoin F. McGuirk and Nathan Nunn
We consider the effects of climate change on seasonally migrant populations that herd livestock – i.e., transhumant pastoralists – in Africa. Traditionally, transhumant pastoralists benefit from a cooperative relationship with sedentary agriculturalists whereby arable land is used for crop farming...
May 2021
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Publication

The effect of cigarette price changes on smoking prevalence by gender: the case of South Africa

Zachary Gitonga, Nicole Vellios, Corne van Walbeek
South Africa successfully reduced smoking prevalence by substantially increasing tobacco excise tax and therefore real cigarette prices between 1993 and 2010. Tobacco market structure changed in 2010 following the entry of local tobacco companies and the introduction of cheaper cigarette brands...
Apr 2021
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Publication

Income Convergence in Southern Africa: A Nonlinear Time-Varying Coefficients Framework

Ntokozo Nzimande
This article investigated income per capita convergence in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) over the period 1980-2017 in a non-linear time-varying coefficients framework. The findings of the study suggested no overall income convergence in the SADC region, but evidence supporting the...
Apr 2021
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