Big data forecasting of South African inflation
We investigate whether the use of machine learning techniques and big data can enhance the accuracy of inflation forecasts and our understanding of the drivers of South African inflation. We make use of a large dataset for the disaggregated prices of consumption goods and services to compare the forecasting performance of a suite of different statistical learning models […]
Transhumant pastoralism, climate change and conflict in Africa
We consider the effects of climate change on seasonally migrant populations that herd livestock – i.e., transhumant pastoralists – in Africa. Traditionally, transhumant pastoralists benefit from a cooperative relationship with sedentary agriculturalists whereby arable land is used for crop farming in the wet season and animal grazing in the dry season. Droughts can disrupt this […]
Globalisation and Conflict: Evidence from sub Saharan Africa
This study contributes to the conflict literature by investigating Stephen Pinker’s (2011) theory on the evolving factors that have contributed to less violence in humanity. He advances that various forms of violence such as homicide, rape, torture and conflict have decreased over time because of the following historical shifts in society: i) pacification process which […]
Globalisation and Conflict: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa
Stephen Pinker (2011) advances that various forms of violence such as homicide, rape, torture and conflict have decreased over time because of the following historical shifts in society: pacification process, civilising process, humanitarian and rights revolutions, and extended periods of peace. We regard these shifts as processes encompassed in globalisation and investigate the effects of […]
Conflict, Economic Growth and Spillover Effects in Africa
While there is a large empirical literature on the determinants of conflict, much less attention has been given to its economic effects and even less to the spillover effects it can have on neighbours. This paper considers the economic effects of conflict for a panel of African countries and develops an approach to calculating the […]
Effects of Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Education on Conflict Intensity in Africa
This study investigates the impact of different dimensions of schooling education (primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment) on the intensity of intra-state conflicts in Africa during 1989-2008. It uses fixed-effects regressions in a panel framework and annual data for 25 African countries. Parameter estimates provide clear evidence that schooling education (irrespective of the dimension considered) reduces […]
The Legacy of Historical Conflict Evidence from Africa
This paper exploits variation between and within countries to examine the legacy of recorded conflicts in Africa in the pre-colonial period between 1400 and 1700. There are three main findings. First, we show that historical conflict is correlated with a greater prevalence of post-colonial con.ict. Second, historical conflict is correlated with lower levels of trust, […]
Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change and Conflict in Africa
We consider the effects of climate change on seasonally migrant populations that herd livestock – i.e., transhumant pastoralists – in Africa. Traditionally, transhumant pastoralists benefit from a cooperative relationship with sedentary agriculturalists whereby arable land is used for crop farming in the wet season and animal grazing in the dry season. Droughts can disrupt this […]
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