Dr Matthew Stern on understanding South Africa’s trade policy and performance


An issue often overlooked in many discussions is that of exports and trade in the South African economy. But with a downward trajectory over the past 20 years having indirectly cost our general economy up to $50 billion a year, this sector is fundamental to growing our economy. The role of international trade cannot be […]

Part 3: International perspectives and South Africa’s trade policy

The discussion is based on two papers: Covid-19 and Lockdown Policies: A Structural Simulation Model of a Bottom-Up Recession in Four Countries by Sherman Robinson, Stephanie Levy, Victor Hernández, Rob Davies, Raul Hinojosa, Sherwin Gabriel, Channing Arndt, Dirk van Seventer, and Marcelo Pleitez and Understanding South Africa’s trade policy and performance by Matthew Stern and […]

Trade Liberalization, Rival Exporters and Reallocation of Production: An Analysis of Indian Manufacturing

Employing a difference-in-difference estimation technique on firm-level data on Indian exporters, we show that the removal of US textile and apparel quotas was associated with a relative increase in sales of products where India was previously quota-restricted,  but a relative decrease in sales of products where China was previously quota-restricted.  We hence highlight the importance […]

Transmission of China’s Shocks to the BRIS Countries

This study examines the impact of China’s dominant position among the BRIS countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. Particularly, by using a dynamic factor model estimated over the period 1995Q2-2009Q4, it investigates how supply and demand shocks from China are transmitted to these economies. The results show that China’s supply shocks are more […]

Slave numeracy in the Cape Colony and comparative development in the eighteenth century

The lack of accurate measures of human capital formation often constrain investigations into the long-run determinants of growth and comparative economic development, especially in regions such as Africa. Using the reported age of criminals in the Courts of Justice records in the Cape Archive, this paper documents, for the first time, the levels of and […]