How are Africa’s emerging stock markets related to advanced markets? Evidence from copulas

This paper examines the dependence structure between two developed and four emerging African stock markets in a copula framework. Using daily data from January 2000 to April 2014, our empirical results show that dependence structure between African and international stocks varies overtime, but generally weak. There is asymmetric and weak tail dependence for all the […]

Stock Return Predictability in South Africa: An Alternative Approach

There is considerable debate internationally as to whether share returns are predictable. The limited evidence in South Africa (Gupta and Modise, 2012a, b and 2013) reveals that valuation ratios have no forecasting power but the Treasury bill rate, term spread and money supply have been found to be able to predict share returns at a […]