South Africa’s real business cycles: The cycle is the trend

It has been argued that business cycles in emerging economies are subject to substantial volatility in trend growth, while the volatility of developed economies’ cycles has moderated in recent decades, and further, that the high volatility in trend growth observed in emerging economies is the result of large and frequent changes in fiscal, monetary and […]

A Sticky Information Phillips Curve for South Africa

Mankiw and Reis (2002) propose the Sticky Information Phillips Curve as an alternative to the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve, to address empirical shortcomings in the latter. In this paper, a Sticky Information Phillips curve for South Africa is estimated, which requires data on expectations of current period variables conditional on sequences of earlier period […]

On the real exchange rate effects of higher electricity prices in South Africa

The paper uses a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of South Africa and simulates various shocks to the price of electricity. We attempt different closures to the model and compare their respective effects on the Consumer Price Index. In a CGE model, this is measuring the real appreciation of the exchange rate, or international […]