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South Africa

Publication

A Note on the (continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in South Africa

Ferdi Botha & Gavin Keeton
In 2002/03 the yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that never materialised. This paper provides two reasons for this false signal. Firstly, while the Reserve Bank never actually officially declared the start of a downswing, by other important measures a downswing did actually occur. It is to...
Aug 2014
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Publication

User Fee Abolition in South Africa in 1994 and 1996: Differences-in-Differences

Anna S. Brink and Steven F. Koch
South Africa waived user fees for primary health care, first in 1994, and again, in 1996. Since the 1994 plan focused on young children and older adults, as well as pregnant and nursing mothers, the 1996 change, which waived fees for the remainder of the population, subject to means tests, can be...
May 2014
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Publication

The Experience of Private Investment in the South African Water Sector: The Mbombela Concession

Sugen Chetty and John M. Luiz
South Africa is a water-stressed country that over a protracted period has suffered from poor water service delivery. The major problems are inefficient operations, lack of capacity in spending allocated budgets, unclear management structures, and a long term decline in capital expenditure...
May 2014
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The reliability of South African real-time output gap estimates

Jessica Kramer and Greg Farrell
Estimates of the output gap are an important component of policy-makers’ toolkits. Both the theory underlying monetary policy analysis and the empirical models employed by central banks suggest that the output gap is a key variable explaining inflation. In this view, the estimate of the output gap...
Apr 2014
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Publication

Timing a Hedge Decision: The Development of a Composite Technical Indicator for White Maize

Susari Geldenhuys, Frans Dreyer and Chris van Heerden
South African white maize is considered to be significantly more volatile than any other agricultural product traded on the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX). This accentuates the need to effectively manage price risk, by means of hedging, to ensure a more profitable and sustainable maize...
Feb 2014
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Municipal assessments versus actual sales price information in hedonic price studies: A South African case study

M du Preez and MC Sale
In most hedonic price model studies, the actual sales price of a property is employed as the dependent variable in the parametric regression analysis. Although the use of this price is pervasive, alternatives to it do exist. One such alternative is the assessed property value, which is more readily...
Jan 2014
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Publication

The Effects of Teacher Strike Activity on Student Learning in South African Primary Schools

Gabrielle Wills
This paper investigates whether teacher strikes affect student achievement at the primary school level in South Africa. A cross-subject analysis with student fixed effects is used to eliminate sources of endogeneity bias at the school and student level. Results indicate that teacher strike...
Jan 2014
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Publication

Transformation, Job Creation and Subsidies to Creative Industries: The Case of South Africa’s Film and Television Sector

Alan Collins and Jen Snowball
Many governments have tried to stimulate economic growth via policy on the creative industries. South Africa is no different but additionally has an overarching aim of achieving social and labour market ‘transformation’ to move away from the legacy of the apartheid era. The effectiveness of...
Dec 2013
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