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South Africa

Publication

The Impact of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Agreement on the South African Economy

L. Walters, H.R. Bohlmann and M.W. Clance
This paper analyses the effects of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Agreement (TFTA) on the South African economy using a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Simulation results show that South Africa’s economy gains from the implementation of the trade agreement with GDP...
Sep 2016
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Publication

An Economic Assessment of Bioethanol Production from Sugar Cane: The Case of South Africa

Marcel Kohler
The destabilising economic impact of South Africa’s dependence on imported crude oil is a key motivation behind the country’s drive to develop a biofuel industry. Much concern has been raised over the impact of biofuels production on price of food for the country's poor. It is this concern that has...
Aug 2016
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Publication

Inflating our troubles: South Africa’s economic performance and the exchange rate

D. Fowkes, C. Loewald and M. Marinkov
South Africa’s export performance has been disappointing, and this is likely related to weak growth outcomes. We investigate the effect of the exchange rate on these outcomes, through two possible channels: its level and its volatility. We find little evidence in the literature or in our own tests...
Jun 2016
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Publication

The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on South African Investments

Magdeline M. Maepa
This paper analysed the short- and long-run interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa from 1970 to 2014. The Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), a multivariate Johansen co-integration approach and Granger causality test were conducted to analyse the...
May 2016
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Publication

Confronting South Africa’s Water Challenge: A Decomposition Analysis of Water Intensity

Marcel Kohler
Water resource intensity measures the intensity of water use in terms of volume of water per unit of value added. It is an internationally accepted environmental indicator of the pressure of economic activity on a country's water resources and therefore a reliable indicator of sustainable economic...
May 2016
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Publication

Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models

Johannes W. Fedderke and Yang Liu
We consider the relative empirical performance of a range of inflation models for South Africa. Model coverage is of Phillips-curve, New Keynesian Phillips curve, monetarist, and structural models of inflation. Our core findings are that the single most robust covariate of inflation is unit labour...
Apr 2016
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Publication

Estimating South Africa’s Output Gap Potential Growth Rate

Johannes W. Fedderke and Daniel K Mengisteab
This paper estimates the potential output of the South African economy using several univariate filters as well as taking a production function approach. Our aim is to compare the sensitivity of the results to the different methodologies and different measurements of output. We find that the...
Feb 2016
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Publication

Agriculture and adaptation to climate change: The Role of wildlife ranching in South Africa

Jackson Otieno and Edwin Muchapondwa
In this paper, we explored the role of wildlife in adaptation to climate change in areas predominantly used for livestock production in South Africa. Using a sample of 1071 wildlife and livestock farms we estimated a multinomial choice model of various adaptation options including livestock and...
Feb 2016
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