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South Africa

publication

Fiscal risks and their impact on banks’ capital buffers in South Africa

Konstantin Makrelov, Neryvia Pillay and Bojosi Morule
South Africa’s fiscal balances have deteriorated significantly over the last decade, while the economy has been recording disappointing economic growth rates even prior to the COVID-19 crisis. In this paper, we estimate a series of equations using the Arellano and Bond (1991) estimator to test how...
Jun 2021
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The effect of cigarette price changes on smoking prevalence by gender: the case of South Africa

Zachary Gitonga, Nicole Vellios, Corne van Walbeek
South Africa successfully reduced smoking prevalence by substantially increasing tobacco excise tax and therefore real cigarette prices between 1993 and 2010. Tobacco market structure changed in 2010 following the entry of local tobacco companies and the introduction of cheaper cigarette brands...
Apr 2021
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Taxpayer responsiveness to taxation: Evidence from bunching at kink points of the South African income tax schedule

Neryvia Pillay
I apply the bunching methodology to South African administrative tax data over the period from 2011 to 2017 to investigate the responsiveness of individual taxpayers to changes in marginal personal income tax rates. I find significant evidence of bunching among the self-employed but no evidence of...
Feb 2021
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publication

Relationship between education and households’ electricity-saving behaviour in South Africa: A multilevel logistic analysis

Kabeya Clement Mulamba
This paper investigates the relationship between the education level of household heads and households’ energy-saving practices at the micro-level in South Africa. It uses the community survey of 2016 as data source. Multilevel logistic models are estimated to account for heterogeneity that...
Jun 2021
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publication

Time consistency and economic growth: A case study of South African macroeconomic policy

Christopher Loewald, David Faulkner and Konstantin Makrelov
The numerous diagnostic studies and policy recommendations that exist for South Africa typically focus on microeconomic constraints to growth. Higher potential growth certainly requires structural reforms to boost productivity growth, in particular to allow private competition and investment in...
Nov 2020
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Impact of Social Transfers on Depressive Symptoms: Evidence from the South African Old Age Pension

Adeola Oyenubi and Joseph Ajefu
We study the effect of income receipt in form of Old age pension (OAP) on the prevalence of depressive symptoms using the Centre of Epidemiologic Studies Short Depression Scale (CES-D 10). We exploit the exogeneous age eligibility criteria in a regression discontinuity (RD) design to estimate the...
Oct 2020
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publication

How Buoyant Is the South African Tax System? An ARDL Approach

Baneng Naape and Nyasha Mahonye
This study aims to scrutinize the responsiveness of the South African tax system to changes in economic performance. The study made use of annual time series data spanning from 1995 – 2017. The tax system was found to be fairly buoyant, albeit there is still room for improvement. The ARDL bounds...
Sep 2020
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publication

Examining the determinants of electricity demand by South African households per income level

J.A Bohlmann, R. Inglesi-Lotz
For the period 1975 - 2016, this paper examines the determinants of the residential demand for electricity in South Africa including disposable income, electricity prices, food prices as well as the impact of the 2007/08 load-shedding wave and the 2008 electricity price restructuring. Given the...
Sep 2020
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publication

The South African - United States Sovereign Bond Spread and its Association with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Johannes W. Fedderke
The yield spread of South African to United States 10 year government bonds over the last 5 years has increased substantially to levels approaching those last seen during the mid-1980s. This yield spread increase is replicated in spreads relative to long-term German bonds, as well as for the spread...
Aug 2020
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publication

Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa

Alain Kabundi, Tumisang Loate and Nicola Viegi
This paper assesses the effect of US monetary policy on South Africa during the period 1990- 2018. We separately analyse and compare the effect of conventional monetary policy, before the Global Financial Crisis, and unconventional monetary policy, after the US monetary policy reached the zero-...
Apr 2020
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