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Capturing the Black Swan: Scenario-Based Asset Allocation with Fat Tails and Non-Linear Correlations

Vsevolod I Gorlach
This paper highlights the shortfalls of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). Amongst other flaws, MPT assumes that returns are normally distributed; that correlations are linear; and that risks are symmetrical. We propose a dynamic and flexible scenario-based approach to portfolio selection that...
Aug 2017
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The Cost-effectiveness of Intervening in Low and High HIV Prevalence Areas in South Africa

Josué Mbonigaba
The cost-effectiveness of intervening with a set of HIV/AIDS interventions in low HIV prevalence areas (LPA) and high HIV prevalence areas (HPA) in South Africa is analysed. The rationale for this analysis is to assess the suspected effect of interaction between the intervention and area of...
Jul 2012
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