Countries that adopt a common currency automatically relinquish their monetary policy autonomy. Hence, it is imperative for countries wanting to join a currency union to ensure that their business cycles are synchronized in order to ensure symmetric propagation of the effect of monetary policy. Put differently, countries with asynchronous business cycles require country-specific policies to stabilize their economies. Thus, in this study we assess the readiness of the SADC region to adopt a single currency in 2018 as proposed.
This study empirically evaluates spatial externalities in financial development in SADC in line with spatial proximity theory, which asserts that externalities increase with proximity. Precisely, the study tests if financially less developed economies in SADC benefit from linkages with and proximity to South Africa, a financially developed economy. The Spatial Durbin Model estimated using GMM and Dynamic Panel Estimations, establishes that financial development in the SADC region is sensitive to space and hence not immune to spatial externalities.
The study empirically establishes the causal relationship between financial innovation and economic growth in SADC. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model, estimated by Pooled Mean Group and Dynamic Fixed Effects, the study finds that financial innovation has a positive relationship to economic growth in long run for SADC. The long run estimations, however, show existence of a weak relationship. Introducing a direct measure of financial innovation buttresses the role of financial innovation in growth in SADC.
The financial sector of an economy is now widely agreed to constitute a potential important channel for growth. Many regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, however, have relatively underdeveloped financial sector. Although several policy designs have been used to induce growth in the sector, there has been little or no success in the majority of the countries in the region. Existing theories suggest that inflation has negative effects on financial development. Other theories argue that inflation has a threshold effects on financial development.
The recent European Union crisis has sparked renewed interest in the achievement of convergence among potential member states prior to the establishment of a monetary union. This article examines real convergence in the per capita output of SADC countries using annual data from 1980 to 2013. An extension of the Evans & Karras’ approach that combines threshold modelling, panel data unit root testing and critical values bootstrapping is used in order to test for convergence.
Attaining high levels of economic growth and development has been one the goals of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). This paper investigates the relationship between financial liberalisation and economic growth in SADC countries. Annual data for the 15 SADC countries for the period 1985-2011 was used to develop a fixed effect model, generalised method of moments (GMM) as well as the fully-modified OLS (FMOLS) cointegration test.
In this paper we investigate the likelihood of a proposed monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) being successful from the viewpoint of the Generalised Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) hypothesis and optimum currency area (OCA) theory. We apply Johansen’s multivariate co-integration technique, panel unit root tests, Pedroni’s residual cointegration test and error correction based panel co-integration tests.
This paper evaluates the strength of policy coordination in Southern African Development Community (SADC) as well as real effective exchange rate stability as indicative of sensible monetary integration. The underlying hypothesis goes with the assertion that countries meeting OCA conditions face more stable exchange rates. The quantitative analysis encompasses 12 SADC member states over the period 1995-2012.