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Inflation

Publication

Big data forecasting of South African inflation

Byron Botha, Rulof Burger, Kevin Kotze, Neil Rankin, and Daan Steenkamp
We investigate whether the use of machine learning techniques and big data can enhance the accuracy of inflation forecasts and our understanding of the drivers of South African inflation. We make use of a large dataset for the disaggregated prices of consumption goods and services to compare the...
Feb 2022
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Publication

Inflation Dynamics in a Dollarised Economy: The Case of Zimbabwe

William Kavila and Pierre Le Roux
This paper explores the dynamics of inflation in the dollarised Zimbabwean economy using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with monthly data from 2009:1 to 2012:12. The main determinants of inflation were found to be the US dollar/South African rand exchange rate, international oil...
May 2016
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Publication

Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models

Johannes W. Fedderke and Yang Liu
We consider the relative empirical performance of a range of inflation models for South Africa. Model coverage is of Phillips-curve, New Keynesian Phillips curve, monetarist, and structural models of inflation. Our core findings are that the single most robust covariate of inflation is unit labour...
Apr 2016
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Publication

Inflation, growth and employment in South Africa: Trends and trade-offs

C. Vermeulen
It is often publicly contended that overly strict application of inflation targeting stifles employment growth in South Africa, with the Phillips curve often cited as seemingly authoritative reference. This paper revisits this debate and argues that the Phillips curve has often been misinterpreted...
Sep 2015
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Publication

Financial sector development and threshold effect of inflation in ECOWAS and SADC: A Panel smooth transition regression approach

Sulemana Mahawiya
The financial sector of an economy is now widely agreed to constitute a potential important channel for growth. Many regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, however, have relatively underdeveloped financial sector. Although several policy designs have been used to induce growth in the sector, there has...
Aug 2015
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Publication

Price setting behaviour in Lesotho: Stylised facts from consumer retail prices

Mamello Amelia Nchake, Lawrence Edwards and Neil Rankin
This paper documents some of the main features of price setting behaviour by retail outlets in Lesotho over the period March 2002 to December 2009. The sample of data covers 229 product items for 345 retail outlets. The paper has three main objectives. Firstly, it presents key indicators of price...
Feb 2014
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Publication

Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Southern African Development Countries

Manoel Bittencourt, Renee van Eyden and Monaheng Seleteng
In this paper we investigate the role of inflation rates in determining economic growth in fifteen sub-Saharan African countries, which are all members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), between 1980 and 2009. The results, based on panel time-series data and analysis, suggest...
Jan 2014
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Publication

Inflation and Economic Growth in the SADC: Some Panel Time-Series Evidence

Manoel Bittencourt, Renee van Eyden and Monaheng Seleteng
In this paper we investigate the role of inflation rates in determining economic growth in fifteen sub-Saharan African countries, which are all members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), between 1980 and 2009. The results, based on panel time-series data and analysis, suggest...
Jan 2014
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