Growth

Shaping macroeconomic outcomes

By early 2016, financial market participants had become increasingly critical of unsustainable current account deficits and low, unbalanced growth in many emerging economies. In response, adjustments have occurred (or are in process) in a wide range of countries – including Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Ghana – gradually guided by policy in some instances and much more abruptly forced by recession in others.

Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Southern African Development Countries

In this paper we investigate the role of inflation rates in determining economic growth in fifteen sub-Saharan African countries, which are all members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), between 1980 and 2009. The results, based on panel time-series data and analysis, suggest that in‡ation has had a detrimental effect to growth in the region. All in all, we highlight not only the fact that inflation has offset the prospective Mundell-Tobin effect and consequently reduced, the much needed, economic activity in the region,

Inflation and Economic Growth in the SADC: Some Panel Time-Series Evidence

In this paper we investigate the role of inflation rates in determining economic growth in fifteen sub-Saharan African countries, which are all members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), between 1980 and 2009. The results, based on panel time-series data and analysis, suggest that in‡ation has had a detrimental effect to growth in the region.

Nominal GDP Targeting and the Monetary Policy Framework

A nominal income target may provide credibility to a commitment to keep real interest rates exceptionally low, until a target output level is reached -–even if expected inflation rises in the interim–- in economies where nominal interest rates are effectively at the zero lower bound, which is not the South African case. There are practical difficulties with adopting nominal income targeting as the monetary policy framework. These include issues on the choice of a target level, risk of unanchored in‡ation expectations, and increased likelihood of error due to data uncertainty and revisions.

Sources of Subsectoral Growth in South Africa

While South Africa’s growth performance has improved somewhat in recent years, it has generally been poor over the past few decades. This article uses Chenery’s factor decomposition method to analyse the sources of growth in South Africa from 1970 to 2007. Using input-output data, the growth of each subsector is decomposed into components associated with export growth, import substitution, growth in domestic demand, and growth in intermediate demand. The results highlight the dependence on domestic demand expansion as a source of growth since 2000, especially for manufacturing.

Economic Growth and Inequality: Evidence from the Young Democracies of South America

We investigate in this paper whether income growth has played any role on inequality in all nine young South American democracies during 1970-2007. The results, based on dynamic panel time-series analysis, suggest that income growth has played
a progressive role in reducing inequality during the period. Moreover, the results suggest that this negative relationship is stronger in the 1990s and early 2000s, a period in which the continent achieved macroeconomic stabilisation, political consolidation

Achieving Higher Growth and Employment: Policy options for South Africa

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, the paper provides some direction on the areas of policy reform that could generate strong growth, employment and poverty reduction in South Africa. The core requirements for more rapid and sustained growth are greater saving, investment, more productive use of capital by better skilled workers, reduction in the skill constraint and moderation in unit labour costs. Higher labour productivity growth will in its own right increase the labour intensity of the economy as a whole.

What are the Distributional Implications of Halving Poverty in South Africa when Growth Alone is not Enough?

The South African government has set a target of halving poverty by 2014. Using microdata from the 2005/6 Income and Expenditure Survey, this article frames government’s stated target of halving poverty by 2014 in terms of specific measures of the poverty gap and poverty headcount ratio. With the poverty line as defined here, about half the South African population is classified as poor. Even so, the aggregate poverty gap is only about 3% of GDP. Projections of poverty in 2014 under various growth scenarios indicate that growth alone will be insufficient to halve poverty by then.

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