South Africa’s export performance has been disappointing, and this is likely related to weak growth outcomes. We investigate the effect of the exchange rate on these outcomes, through two possible channels: its level and its volatility. We find little evidence in the literature or in our own tests to suggest volatility has been an important factor. The level of the currency appears to be more important, with currency undervaluation apparently favouring growth and exports. This may justify a policy of asymmetric reserve accumulation.
There is a bulk of literature that identifies the major economic drivers of Hong Kong’s rapid and steady economic performance over the last three decades. Of these major economic drivers identified, the performance of the stock market has received less attention. This paper examines the causal links between stock market performance and economic performance of Hong Kong in an augmented VAR setting.
The increasing variability in the climatic pattern and its adverse effects on the Ugandan economy has become a major development challenge. For example, a key but climate sensitive sector like agriculture is increasingly experiencing severe disruptions as a result of its reliance on rainfall which has increasingly become unpredictable. Recent studies indicate a seemingly decreasing trend in the number of rainy days during the months which are crucial for crop growth. This trend is severely disrupting agricultural activity across the country.