DSGE

Is Basel III counter-cyclical: The case of South Africa?

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with banking and a macro-prudential authority, and studies the extent to which the Basel III bank capital regulation promotes financial and macroeconomic stability in the context of South African economy. The decomposition analysis of the transition from Basel II to Basel III suggests that it is the counter-cyclical capital buffer that effectively mitigates the pro-cyclicality of its predecessor, while the impact of the conservative buffer is marginal.

A New Keynesian DSGE model for Low Income Economies with Foreign Exchange Constraints

The existing literature is clear that low income economies tend to suffer from foreign exchange shortages exacerbated by their exports. Most importantly, the concentration of their exports renders these countries susceptible to international price fluctuations. This frequently affects the level of foreign exchange, causing excess demand for foreign exchange leading to foreign exchange shortages.

The effectiveness of counter-cyclical loan-to-value regulations: generic versus sector-specific rules

This paper considers the implications of the counter-cyclical loan-to-value (CcLTV) regulation in a setting where different types of borrowers from distinct sectors of the credit market co-exist. To identify the optimal policy design, we consider two macro-prudential policy regimes, nanely generic and sector-specfic, and compare their effectiveness in enhancing financial and macroeconomic stability. The results show that both regimes are effective in this regard, especially when the economy is hit by financial and housing demand shocks.

Fiscal Policy and Adjustment in a Foreign Exchange Constrained Economy: Evidence from Malawi

Most of the recent literature analysing the adjustments of macroeconomic variables to fiscal policy shocks rely on the inclusion of non-Ricardian households to generate a positive response of consumption to an increase in government spending. This paper examines the dynamic effects of government financing behaviour in a foreign exchange constrained low income economy on key macroeconomic aggregates such as output, consumption, wages and labour supply.

Macroprudential policy and foreign interest rate shocks: A comparison of different instruments and regulatory regimes

This paper presents a generic small open economy real business cycle model with banking and foreign borrowing. We incorporate capital requirements, reserve requirements, and loan-to-value (LTV) regulation into this framework, and subject the model to a positive foreign interest rate shock that raises the country risk premium and reduces the supply of foreign funds. The results show that these macroprudential instruments can attenuate the impact of such a shock, and that this attenuation property increases with the strictness of the regulatory regime.

Flow specific capital controls for emerging markets

This paper investigates the impact of capital controls on business cycle fluctuations and welfare. To perform this analysis, we deploy an asymmetric two country model that is subject to negative foreign interest rate shocks. The results show that both an inflow and outflow capital control are able to attenuate capital flow dynamics, but each control bears different implications for macroeconomic outcomes. Whilst the outflow capital control is associated with shock attenuation benefits, the inflow capital control is shown to amplify the impact of shocks.

Welfare analysis of bank capital requirements with endogenous default

This paper presents a tractable framework with endogenous default and evaluates the welfare implication of bank capital requirements. We analyze the response of social welfare to a negative technology shock under different capital requirement regimes with and without default. We show that including default as an additional indicator of capital requirements is welfare improving. When implementing capital requirements, a more aggressive reaction to the default rate is more effective for weakening the negative effect of the shock on welfare.

Credit market heterogeneity, balance sheet (in) dependence, financial shocks

This paper presents a real business cycle model with financial frictions and two credit markets to investigate the qualitative and quantitative relevance of credit market heterogeneity. To address this line of inquiry we contrast the transmission of financial shocks in an economy where loans are the only form of credit to one in which both loans and bonds exist.

Monetary policy and commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies

Commodity terms of trade shocks have continued to drive macroeconomic ‡uctuations in most emerging market economies. The volatility and persistence of these shocks have posed great challenges for monetary policy. This study employs a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the optimal monetary policy responses to commodity terms of trade shocks in commodity dependent emerging market economies. The model is calibrated to the South African economy.

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