Business Cycle

Can bank capital adequacy changes amplify the business cycle in South Africa?

Financial globalisation and financial innovation have increased most banks’ appetite for risk and therefore engendered financial fragility in the financial system. This paper examines the relationship between regulatory bank capital adequacy and the business cycle in South Africa using Vector error correction model (VECM). This paper employed quarterly data from South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) for the period 1990 to 2013.

Financial sector development, economic volatility and shocks in sub-Saharan Africa

The role of financial sector development in economic volatility has been extensively studied albeit without informative results largely on the failure of extant studies to decompose volatility into its various components. By disaggregating volatility, this study examines the effect of financial development on volatility as well as channels through which finance affects volatility components in 23 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2014 using the newly developed panel cointegration estimation strategy.

Credit market heterogeneity, balance sheet (in) dependence, financial shocks

This paper presents a real business cycle model with financial frictions and two credit markets to investigate the qualitative and quantitative relevance of credit market heterogeneity. To address this line of inquiry we contrast the transmission of financial shocks in an economy where loans are the only form of credit to one in which both loans and bonds exist.

Can currency in circulation predict South African economic activity?

The money supply can be broadly defined as consisting of currency and deposits. While currency forms but a small portion of the total money supply, it can be a crucial determinant of spending behaviour and subsequently economic activity. The ability of the money supply to predict an up- or downswing in economic activity, as measured by a positive or negative output gap, is evaluated over a sample period 1980 – 2012. Two models are estimated, one using only the currency component and a second using the total money supply (M3).

Comovement Between Africa and Advanced Economies: 1980-2011

This paper analyses business cycle comovement between African economies and advanced economies. It covers the period 1980 to 2011. The empirical analysis is based on the Dynamic Factor Model applied to annual data for African and G7 countries, covering the period 1980 to 2011. The results indicate that middle-income African countries show consistent business cycle variance shares, both before and after controlling for the influence of the G7.

Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa

This paper applies an alternative dating algorithm - suggested by Harding and Pagan (for example, 2002a) - to identify the turning points of the South African business cycle. The characteristics of the resulting business cycle are analysed and compared with results obtained for the o¢cial cycle in recent papers on the South African business cycle (du Plessis and Smit, 2003; du Plessis, 2004).

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