O41

One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

Productivity estimates for South Africa from CES production functions

This paper provides estimates of the elasticity of substitution and total factor productivity (TFP) for South Africa. Estimates are based on constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production functions. Estimates of potential output and the output gap implied by different CES model specifications are also compared to those from other models.

The Interdependence between the Saving Rate and Technology across Regimes: Evidence from South Africa

This paper hypothesises that the saving rate and technological progress are interdependently determined by a common exogenous source, so that an exogenous shock to the saving rate determines long-run growth transitions. In an open economy, the saving rate measures the quality of capital investment.

Social capital as an engine of growth: Multisectoral modelling and implications

We propose a multisector endogenous growth model incorporating social capital. Social capital only serves as an input in the production of human capital and it involves a cost in terms of the final good. We show that in contrast to existing alternative specifications, this setting assures that social capital enhances productivity gains by playing the role of a timing belt driving the transmission and propagation of all productivity shocks throughout society whatever the sectoral origin of the shocks.

Modeling the rand-dollar future spot rates: The Kalman Filter approach

A number of studies have contended that it is challenging to explain exchange rate movement with macroeconomic fundamentals. A naive model such as a random walk forecasts exchange rate movements more reliably than existing structural models. This paper confirms that it is possible to improve the forecast of structural exchange rate models, by explicitly accounting for parameter instability when estimating these models.

Technology, Human Capital and Growth

The paper examines whether endogenous growth processes can be found in middle income country contexts. Estimation proceeds by means of dynamic heterogeneous panel analysis. Empirical evidence finds in favour of positive impacts on total factor productivty growth by Schumpeterian innovative activity. A crucial finding is that it is the quality of human capital rather than the quantity of human capital that is important for TFP growth.

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