G28

Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation

Welfare analysis of bank capital requirements with endogenous default

This paper presents a tractable framework with endogenous default and evaluates the welfare implication of bank capital requirements. We analyze the response of social welfare to a negative technology shock under different capital requirement regimes with and without default. We show that including default as an additional indicator of capital requirements is welfare improving. When implementing capital requirements, a more aggressive reaction to the default rate is more effective for weakening the negative effect of the shock on welfare.

Can bank capital adequacy changes amplify the business cycle in South Africa?

Financial globalisation and financial innovation have increased most banks’ appetite for risk and therefore engendered financial fragility in the financial system. This paper examines the relationship between regulatory bank capital adequacy and the business cycle in South Africa using Vector error correction model (VECM). This paper employed quarterly data from South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) for the period 1990 to 2013.

An Evaluation of the Cost and Revenue Efficiency of the Banking Sector in Zimbabwe

The study was meant to evaluate the cost and revenue efficiency of the Zimbabwean banking sector during the period 2009-2014. The study employed the Data Envelopment Analysis and the Tobit Regression methods. The estimation of cost and revenue efficiency shows that revenue and cost efficiency increased during the period 2009-2012. This coincided with high positive growth rates and economic stability. Efficiency declined in 2013-14 as a result of government controls on banking sector pricing and general decline in economic activity.

Financial Innovation and Economic Growth in the SADC

The study empirically establishes the causal relationship between financial innovation and economic growth in SADC. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model, estimated by Pooled Mean Group and Dynamic Fixed Effects, the study finds that financial innovation has a positive relationship to economic growth in long run for SADC. The long run estimations, however, show existence of a weak relationship. Introducing a direct measure of financial innovation buttresses the role of financial innovation in growth in SADC.

Financial Reforms and the Finance – Growth Relationship in the Southern African Development Community (SADC)

This study seeks to establish the casual relationship between financial development and economic growth in the SADC region, factoring-in the role of financial reforms. Utilising Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM) and Panel Fixed Effects estimations, the study established that financial development has a negative effect on growth in SADC. Underdeveloped financial systems, structure and distribution of credit in the SADC countries and strong country heterogeneity factors are possible explanations to the relationship obtained.

The effectiveness of countercyclical capital requirements and contingent convertible capital: a dual approach to macroeconomic stability

This paper studies the effectiveness of countercyclical capital requirements and contingent convertible capital (CoCos) in limiting financial instability, and its associated influence on the real economy. To do this, I augment both features into a standard real business cycle framework with an equity market and a banking sector. The model is calibrated to real U.S.

Do Capital Requirements Affect Cost of Intermediation? Evidence from a Panel of South African Banks

Since the 2007 sub-prime financial crisis, world bank capital ratios have increased. In this paper, we investigate the impact of increased bank capital requirements introduced under the Basel Accord framework on the costs of intermediation. We attempt to answer this central question by running panel regressions using 2001 – 2012 annual bank-level data for ten banks constituting inter alia the four largest South African banks. We conclude that high capital requirements are associated with increased costs of intermediation.

Monetary policy and commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies

Commodity terms of trade shocks have continued to drive macroeconomic ‡uctuations in most emerging market economies. The volatility and persistence of these shocks have posed great challenges for monetary policy. This study employs a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the optimal monetary policy responses to commodity terms of trade shocks in commodity dependent emerging market economies. The model is calibrated to the South African economy.

Terms of Trade Shocks and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies

Emerging market economies (EMEs) have persistently experienced different waves of commodity terms of trade disturbances, generating macroeconomic instabilities. The adoption of in‡flation targeting (IT) by many emerging market economies has raised the questions about its relative suitability in dealing with these shocks compared with other regimes. This paper tests the robustness of infl‡ation targeting compared to monetary targeting and exchange rate targeting regimes in coping with commodity terms of trade shocks.

Do Monetary, Fiscal and Financial Institutions Really Matter for Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies?

Most emerging market economies (EMEs) which have implemented inflation targeting (IT) have continued to experience large, frequent and sometimes persistent inflation target misses. At the same time these countries had reformed their institutional structures when implementing IT. In this paper we empirically study the importance of central bank independence, fiscal discipline and financial sector development for the achievement of inflation targets in EMEs using the panel ordered logit model.

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