G21

Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

Order flow and rand/dollar exchange rate dynamics

This paper uses the microstructure approach for the South African foreign exchange market to determine the impact of order flow on the rand/US dollar exchange rate over the short and long term. A hybrid model which combines microeconomic and macroeconomic fundamental determinants of the exchange
rate has been adopted. The analysis uses monthly series from January 2004 to December 2016. We find that order flow explains movements in the exchange rate, both in the short and in the long term. The speed of adjustment from short-term deviations is relatively slow.

Measuring the Financial Cycle in South Africa

We measure the financial cycle in South Africa using three different methodologies, consider its main characteristics and examine its relationships with the business cycle and a measure of financial stress. We identify the financial cycle using credit, house prices and equity prices as indicators, and estimate it using traditional turningpoin analysis, frequency-based filters and an unobserved components model-based approach.

Information Contagion and Systemic Risk

We examine the effect of ex-post information contagion on the ex-ante optimal portfolio choices of banks and the welfare losses due to joint default. Because of counterparty risk and common exposures, bad news about one bank reveals valuable information about another bank, thereby triggering information contagion. Systemic risk is defined as the ex-ante probability of joint bank default ex post. We find that information contagion increases systemic risk when banks are subject to common exposures since portfolio adjustments are small.

Decomposition of the Technical Efficiency: Pure Technical and Scale Efficiency of the Financial System

The study investigated the technical efficiency of the commercial banks in Zimbabwe during the period 2009-2015. The study entailed the decomposition of the technical efficiency into pure technical and scale efficiency to understand the sources of the technical inefficiency of the commercial banks in Zimbabwe.

Can bank capital adequacy changes amplify the business cycle in South Africa?

Financial globalisation and financial innovation have increased most banks’ appetite for risk and therefore engendered financial fragility in the financial system. This paper examines the relationship between regulatory bank capital adequacy and the business cycle in South Africa using Vector error correction model (VECM). This paper employed quarterly data from South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) for the period 1990 to 2013.

An Evaluation of the Cost and Revenue Efficiency of the Banking Sector in Zimbabwe

The study was meant to evaluate the cost and revenue efficiency of the Zimbabwean banking sector during the period 2009-2014. The study employed the Data Envelopment Analysis and the Tobit Regression methods. The estimation of cost and revenue efficiency shows that revenue and cost efficiency increased during the period 2009-2012. This coincided with high positive growth rates and economic stability. Efficiency declined in 2013-14 as a result of government controls on banking sector pricing and general decline in economic activity.

Financial Innovation and Economic Growth in the SADC

The study empirically establishes the causal relationship between financial innovation and economic growth in SADC. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model, estimated by Pooled Mean Group and Dynamic Fixed Effects, the study finds that financial innovation has a positive relationship to economic growth in long run for SADC. The long run estimations, however, show existence of a weak relationship. Introducing a direct measure of financial innovation buttresses the role of financial innovation in growth in SADC.

Why local context matters: de jure and de facto property rights in colonial South Africa

For economic transactions, including debt transactions, to occur in a market system, property rights are essential. The literature has focussed on finding empirical proof of the effect of property right regimes, noting differences between de jure and de facto property rights. Yet most of these studies focus on macroeconomic outcomes, like economic growth and public expenditure.

Financial Reforms and the Finance – Growth Relationship in the Southern African Development Community (SADC)

This study seeks to establish the casual relationship between financial development and economic growth in the SADC region, factoring-in the role of financial reforms. Utilising Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM) and Panel Fixed Effects estimations, the study established that financial development has a negative effect on growth in SADC. Underdeveloped financial systems, structure and distribution of credit in the SADC countries and strong country heterogeneity factors are possible explanations to the relationship obtained.

Financial development and income inequality in Africa: A panel heterogeneous approach

Although the financial sector of Africa has witnessed massive reforms to enhance its ability to support economic activities, reduce poverty and lower income inequality, Africa remains the poorest region and the second most unequal region in the world after Latin America. Despite these established facts, little empirical research exists on the relationship between financial development and income inequality in Africa.

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