G15

International Financial Markets

Modelling exchange rate volatility dynamics: Empirical evidence from South Africa

In this paper, we extend the literature on modelling exchange rate volatility in South Africa by estimating a range of models, including some that attempt to account for structural breaks and long memory. We examine the key nominal exchange rates of the South African rand and replicate common findings in the literature; particularly that volatility is ‘persistent’. We investigate whether this ‘persistence’ is due to structural breaks or long memory, and the extent of asymmetric responses of the rand to ‘good news’ and ‘bad news’.

Do monetary policy announcements affect foreign exchange returns and volatility? Some evidence from high-frequency intra-day South African data.

This paper examines the temporal effect of domestic monetary policy surprises on both the levels and volatility of the South African rand/United States dollar exchange rate. The analysis in this ‘event study’ proceeds using intra-day minute-by-minute exchange rate data, repo rate data from the South African Reserve Bank’s scheduled monetary policy announcements, and Bloomberg market consensus repo rate forecasts.

Regionalization versus Internationalization of African Stock Markets: A frequency-time domain analysis

 This paper examines regional and global co-movemnt of Africa’s stock markets using the three-dimensional continuous Morlet wavelet transform methodology. The analyses which are done in segments investigate co-movements with global markets; bilateral exchange rates expressed in US dollars and euro; and four regional markets in Africa. First, we find evidence of stronger co-movements broadly narrowed to short-run fluctuations.

How are Africa's emerging stock markets related to advanced markets? Evidence from copulas

This paper examines the dependence structure between two developed and four emerging African stock markets in a copula framework. Using daily data from January 2000 to April 2014, our empirical results show that dependence structure between African and international stocks varies overtime, but generally weak. There is asymmetric and weak tail dependence for all the countries, implying stock return co-movement varies in bearish and bullish markets and that the dependence is generally not strong in extreme market conditions.

What drives cross-border bank expansion? Answers from Kenya

This paper investigates the drivers of bank foreign expansion in East Africa. Our results support the view that institutional quality is vital at the planning phase of banks’ going-abroad decision but its importance is muted once the decision has been taken. Second, relatively competitive markets and weak market power at home seem to “push” banks abroad. Third, banks seek to exploit the benefits of their relative efficiency through regional expansion. Fourth, relatively higher foreign country inflation is a deterrent to banks expansion abroad.

Global commodities and African stocks: insights for hedging and diversification strategies

Owing to frequent fluctuations in global markets, diversifying across emerging markets is increasingly becoming a necessity. Despite this, a cloud of uncertainty surrounds the relative capacities of emerging markets to provide the required shields for international investors, especially during extreme market conditions. In this paper, we explore the relative potentials of African equities to provide opportunities for hedging and diversification for global commodity investors by using data of daily periodicity on close-to-close basis from January 3, 2003 to December 29, 2014.

Financial Structure and Economic Development in Africa

This paper explores the relationship between economic development and financial structure: that is, whether the degree of financial system structure matter for pace and character of economic development in 15 African countries for the period of 1995 to 2011. The paper utilizes the fixed effect instrument variable technique for econometric estimation. None of the financial structure indicators enters any of the economic development regressions significantly at the conventional 10% level, which is inconsistent with bank-based and market-based system view of financial system.

Dynamic Integration of Emerging Market Bond Yields into the Global Bond Market

This paper investigates empirically the integration of bond markets of emerging market economies into the global bond markets from 2003 to 2012. The paper employs factor analysis based on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory to extract global factors from a panel of 38 bond yields of advanced and emerging market economies.The results reveal that bond yields in advanced economies, which constitute the driving forces behind the global bond market, do not dominate in explaining the variation of emerging market bond yields.

Returns Correlation Structure and Volatility Spillovers Among the Major African Stock Markets

The paper analyses the structure of returns comovements and the volatility spillovers among the African stock markets using daily data for the period 2000-2010. We particularly focus on two issues: whether the stock markets of countries with close trading and financial links are more sychronised, and whether the financial crises influences volatility spillovers. Econometric models used include the Factor Analysis (FA), the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and the GARCH. Our findings suggest that linkages among the African stock markets only exist along regional blocs.

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