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International Business Cycles


Monetary policy in a model with commodity and financial market

Vo Phuong Mai Le and Ruthira Naraidoo
This paper builds a small open economy model for a net commodity exporter to consider financial frictions and monetary policies in order to investigate the main determinants of business cycles. Since we make a distinction to the access of financial markets between the commodity and non-commodity...
May 2019
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South Africa’s real business cycles: The Cycle is the trend

Hilary Patroba and Leroi Raputsoane
This paper tests the ‘cycle is the trend’ hypothesis. We investigate how far permanent and transitory productivity shocks can account for the dynamics observed in the South African business cycle over the period 1946{2014. By estimating a standard small open economy real business cycle model and...
Jul 2016
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Comovement Between Africa and Advanced Economies: 1980-2011

Carike Claassen, Elsabe Loots and Alain Kabundi
This paper analyses business cycle comovement between African economies and advanced economies. It covers the period 1980 to 2011. The empirical analysis is based on the Dynamic Factor Model applied to annual data for African and G7 countries, covering the period 1980 to 2011. The results indicate...
Feb 2016
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Trade Linkages and Business Cycle Co-movement: An Empirical Analysis of Africa and its Main Trading Partners using Global VAR

Emilie Chanceline Kinfack and Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
This paper assesses the extent of trade linkages and shock transmission between African economies and its main trading partners, namely China, Europe and the United States (US). Using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, the paper investigates how shock transmission between Africa and its...
Apr 2015
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