F15

Economic Integration

Determinants of tax revenue performance in the Southern African Development Community (SADC)

This paper investigates the determinants of tax revenue performance in all 15 Southern African Development Community countries during 1990-2010, using panel data. The investigation makes use of two estimation techniques in testing for country specificity. These are the least squares dummy variables fixed effects and the feasible generalised least squares by Park (1967) and Kmenta (1986). The extreme-bound analysis technique is also used in delineating the various causal relationships (including a sensitivity analysis).

The analysis of borders effects in intra-African trade

The study aims to analyze the border effects on intra-African trade through the use of a gravity specification based on the monopolistic competition model of trade introduced by Krugman (1980). The study used CEPII data on trade flows between African countries over the period 1980-2006. We accommodate for the significant number of zero trade flows between several African countries by using the Heckman correction method.

The effect of tax harmonisation in the Southern African Development Community on Foreign Direct Investment

This paper investigates the effect of tax harmonisation on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. Findings of a first attempt to investigate the linkage between taxation (tax rates and policy) and FDI (in all 15 countries), using an eclectic panel data modeling approach from 1990-2010 are presented.

Assessment of Monetary Union in SADC: Evidence from Cointegration and Panel Unit Root Tests

In this paper we investigate the likelihood of a proposed monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) being successful from the viewpoint of the Generalised Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) hypothesis and optimum currency area (OCA) theory. We apply Johansen’s multivariate co-integration technique, panel unit root tests, Pedroni’s residual cointegration test and error correction based panel co-integration tests.

Monetary Integration in SADC: Assessment of Policy Coordination and Real Effective Exchange Rate Stability

This paper evaluates the strength of policy coordination in Southern African Development Community (SADC) as well as real effective exchange rate stability as indicative of sensible monetary integration. The underlying hypothesis goes with the assertion that countries meeting OCA conditions face more stable exchange rates. The quantitative analysis encompasses 12 SADC member states over the period 1995-2012.

Dynamic Integration of Emerging Market Bond Yields into the Global Bond Market

This paper investigates empirically the integration of bond markets of emerging market economies into the global bond markets from 2003 to 2012. The paper employs factor analysis based on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory to extract global factors from a panel of 38 bond yields of advanced and emerging market economies.The results reveal that bond yields in advanced economies, which constitute the driving forces behind the global bond market, do not dominate in explaining the variation of emerging market bond yields.

A Disaggregated Analysis of Product Price Integration in the Southern African Development Community

Empirical evidence on the extent to which product markets are integrated within Africa remains noticeably limited. This paper uses highly disaggregated retail price data for 32 narrowly defined products collected at the district level in five SADC countries (Botswana, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia) and Uganda to assess the extent to which product prices are integrated within and between these countries. We find evidence of large and persistent absolute deviations from the law of one price (LOP) both within and between each of the six countries.

A Greek wedding in SADC? - Testing for structural symmetry

This paper investigates structural symmetry among SADC countries in order to establish, judged by modern OCA theory, which of these countries may possibly make for a good monetary matrimony and which countries may be left out in the cold. SADC remains adamant that it would conclude monetary union by 2018. It can ill afford a repeat of the type of financial and fiscal instability brought about by ex ante structural economic differences and asynchronous business cycles in the EU. This study contributes to the literature on macro-economic convergence in the SADC region.

A regional perspective on Aid and FDI in Southern Africa

During the last decade international aid flows diminished while Africa’s relative share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) declined. This went together with lacklustre growth and low human development levels. In 2005, the G8 countries announced that they would increase aid to Africa by some $25 billion per annum. The pledge for increasing aid seems to have triggered an extensive debate about the role of aid and other international capital flows in the development of poorer countries. This study contributes to this debate.

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