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Fiscal Policy


Modelling the Impact of Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers on Output Stabilisation in South Africa

Kibambe Jacques Ngoie and Niek Schoeman
This paper investigates ways in which an efficiency model like ‘DEA Window analysis’ can be utilised, under strictly defined conditions, to assess the level of efficiency of automatic fiscal stabilisers (AFS). The size of AFS is obtained through gaps in both revenue and expenditures variables such...
May 2009
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Modeling the rand-dollar future spot rates: The Kalman Filter approach

Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
A number of studies have contended that it is challenging to explain exchange rate movement with macroeconomic fundamentals. A naive model such as a random walk forecasts exchange rate movements more reliably than existing structural models. This paper confirms that it is possible to improve the...
Oct 2008
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Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa

Stan du Plessis
This paper applies an alternative dating algorithm - suggested by Harding and Pagan (for example, 2002a) - to identify the turning points of the South African business cycle. The characteristics of the resulting business cycle are analysed and compared with results obtained for the o¢cial cycle in...
Sep 2006
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